Arm is heavily overvalued: at about $240B it trades above 100x forward P/E and roughly 50x sales, already pricing in about 26x earnings five years out. That rests on FY2031 targets of $25B revenue, $15B of it from its own AGI CPU silicon starting from zero, and $9.00 EPS. Momentum is real, with Q1 revenue up 22% and the AGI CPU order book doubling to $2B+. But chip sales dilute ~98% IP gross margins to ~40-50%, and reliance on TSMC wafers adds execution risk the multiple leaves no room for. … Show more

Arm's valuation carries an absurd premium for the architecture layer. It trades at 91.9x EV/sales, far above its historical range, as Wall Street prices it as the mandatory royalty tollbooth for every custom AI chip. EDA leaders Cadence, at 30.1x, and Synopsys, at 21.2x, trade near the low end of their historical bands, priced like mature utilities, as the market stacks almost all the scarcity premium into Arm. x.com 

Arm's low blended royalties leave pricing and mix leverage that makes earnings look massively understated at 110x forward P/E. It collects about 7 cents per chip overall, versus $1 on compute and networking chips and $0.85-$0.90 on smartphones. An 8-cent bump to 15 cents per chip is a hypothetical $5-6 billion royalty-revenue scenario, which would be pure cash. Mix shift and price increases are coming, though royalties may not double. x.com  x.com 

Arm looks wildly overvalued at nearly a $500 billion market cap, about 96x sales and 150x next-twelve-month earnings. The euphoria shows in @steve2bacon calling it the easiest hold ever. x.com 

Arm remains wildly overvalued even after falling 175 points from its top, still trading at 336x earnings, 236x forward earnings and 61.5x sales. Eventually the bids will stop, there will be no bailout rally and chasers will be forced to learn the fundamentals. The price target remains $100-120, reached slowly and then all of a sudden. x.com 

Arm remains a long-term winner over the next 10 years, but not a short-term buy after running too far, too fast. Its performance has to catch up with at least part of the move, so buying at these levels carries elevated risk if a negative surprise hits. x.com 

Arm Holdings looks unattractive because its nearly 300 P/E ratio is difficult to justify against only 22% year-over-year revenue growth. x.com 

Arm is still expensive at about 40x revenue with only 20% growth, so it has not fallen enough. x.com 

Arm Holdings looks expensive heading into Wednesday's earnings, trading at a significant premium with a forward P/E of 103x, and it may end up below $175. x.com 

Arm's post-earnings rise makes little sense at over 40x sales, because the results did not justify it. Remaining performance obligations fell and consensus numbers saw only very modest adjustments, yet the shares rose after successive double-digit moves. x.com