Arm is still expensive at about 40x revenue with only 20% growth, so it has not fallen enough. x.com 

Arm Holdings looks unattractive because its nearly 300 P/E ratio is difficult to justify against only 22% year-over-year revenue growth. x.com 

Arm Holdings is way overvalued at a $450B market cap on $6B of revenue. That is about 80x sales for a slow-growth company that is primarily a smartphone chip business, a multiple a forward-looking market wouldn't pay. It looks overvalued even relative to SpaceX. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Arm Holdings is expensive against its earnings, trading at 92x forward earnings versus a typical 38x for chipmakers. At 38x next year's $3.05 EPS, fair value runs roughly $102-$130, so at $281.30 buyers pay about 116% over fair value. This is a levels-only view from reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Arm Holdings looks expensive heading into Wednesday's earnings, trading at a significant premium with a forward P/E of 103x, and it may end up below $175. x.com 

Arm's valuation makes no sense unless analyst estimates are off by 100%. It is one of the few true bubbles, alongside CrowdStrike in software, Tesla among mega caps and Costco at 50x; elsewhere there are pockets of dumb behavior but few true bubbles. Breadth is key: as this cycle's winners correct, the question is whether stocks that have not been involved can lift the market. x.com 

Arm is hard to justify over Nvidia, which is cheaper and growing faster. Arm trades at 44x sales and 112x earnings with 28% two-year sales growth and 32% EPS growth, while Nvidia trades at 11x sales and 20x earnings with 60%+ growth in both. There is more to an investment case than these figures. x.com 

Arm's forward P/E near 190 already prices in much of its expected growth, leaving a limited margin of safety. Its fundamentals are sound and AI and data center demand is strong, but a long-term position is better taken after a valuation pullback or further earnings delivery. x.com 

Arm's valuation carries an absurd premium for the architecture layer. It trades at 91.9x EV/sales, far above its historical range, as Wall Street prices it as the mandatory royalty tollbooth for every custom AI chip. EDA leaders Cadence, at 30.1x, and Synopsys, at 21.2x, trade near the low end of their historical bands, priced like mature utilities, as the market stacks almost all the scarcity premium into Arm. x.com 

Arm remains wildly overvalued even after falling 175 points from its top, still trading at 336x earnings, 236x forward earnings and 61.5x sales. Eventually the bids will stop, there will be no bailout rally and chasers will be forced to learn the fundamentals. The price target remains $100-120, reached slowly and then all of a sudden. x.com