Danny Marques
Bitcoin/AI Investor Relations at OG Advisory Group, Research at Finblueprint
Long-dated Treasuries look set for a 20-50% move over a few months as bond prices sweep their lows, as they did in 2004 and 2018. That would mean a rate cut and falling long-term yields are closer than expected. A rate hike is almost certainly not coming, despite @CrazySmitty271's call for at least two imminent hikes; rates could hold for a few more months, but a hike would be destructive and unnecessary. Long bonds remain a contrarian trade. x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries are a contrarian but sound capital-preservation holding that pays a dividend and dampens portfolio volatility, with upside once rate cuts begin. Financing the US AI revolution and its infrastructure is too important for rates to stay high for the foreseeable future. @cantonmeow adds that the TLT monthly chart's Bollinger bands are squeezing as price holds a buy order block, signaling accumulation. x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries may finally be worth buying because Kevin Warsh will cut rates in May regardless, since Trump will make him. A 3.82% dividend yield is on offer too. x.comÂ
Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.comÂ
Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.comÂ
Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated US Treasuries show textbook capitulation, suggesting the 10-year yield is near a temporary top. Long bonds have closed below the lower Bollinger band for five straight days on rising volume, with implied-volatility rank at an extreme, a sign of extremely crowded shorts. High rates do little to restrain highly profitable companies such as big tech and semiconductors. x.comÂ
Treasury yields are putting in a top, and bonds look to be at a major bottom. Deflation is coming, and investors are extrapolating rate momentum, adding two plus two and getting six; that move will likely reverse soon. The fear in questions about how high rates can go is typical of major bottoms. Equity markets are not close to signaling a reversal either. x.com x.comÂ
The secular rise in Treasury yields will likely last longer and go further than most expect, making bets on a yield low premature. Investors tried to time the low in yields from the early 2000s and were 20 years early. The most rate-sensitive sectors, homebuilders, mortgage names and private equity, where smart money would show up first if a turn were near, show no hint of accumulation. x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries are attractive at about a 5.2% yield, which looks like what it takes to draw domestic buyers to replace foreign demand. @acemoney21 argues the supply-demand imbalance is real as China and the EU leave Treasury auctions, so Americans must be incentivized with 5% risk-free yields, and that curve steepening is part of the administration's plan. Locking in about 5% on part of a portfolio for the next 20 years is appealing. x.com x.comÂ
