Danny Marques
Bitcoin/AI Investor Relations at OG Advisory Group, Research at Finblueprint
Fermi's valuation has now fallen to where starting a position makes sense, because the market has finally discounted risks that were apparent more than a month earlier. Those risks were clear from conversations with other management teams and Texas regulators; @chinoalemano notes the market concluded only about a third of the potential 1,600MW for 2027 would actually happen. x.com x.com
Fermi's roughly $4 billion valuation is unearned and extremely high versus peers that have actually brought power online. Its 222MW lease with TensorWave is good but not worth that valuation as it stands, and multi-gigawatt callouts such as 6,000MW scaling to 17,000MW are asinine for any company at this point. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Fermi is an overlooked way to play AI because almost no one is watching who powers the chips. Rick Perry's company has built an 11 GW private, behind-the-meter energy grid for AI hyperscalers, with a 6 GW Clean Air Permit, a nuclear pilot, $785M in new equipment financing and a $500M MUFG loan. At $9.5, the stock sits well below analyst targets of $20 or more, and two buy signals are in play. x.com
Fermi's first data center tenant is a massive one, making this a high-conviction setup. TensorWave signed a binding lease at Project Matador in Texas, with phase one locking in 222 megawatts and about $6.5 billion of contracted revenue over 15 years, and expansion rights could take it past 650 megawatts. Part of the lease is expected to carry a guarantee from a major AI name. Construction is 6 gigawatts into a 17-gigawatt build, first power is targeted for 2026, and volume shows accumulation. … Show more
Fermi has no revenue and is only promising a 17 MW Texas project by 2032. Its steep share-price decline looks like capital markets disciplining a speculative business. x.com
2G Energy's growing orders and long service tail support its unusually cheap AI data-center power valuation. Nine-month 2026 orders exceed €880m, more than twice 2025 revenue; backlog runs into 2028 and service contracts last 15-20 years. Management first guided to €750-850m of revenue in 2028 and says units already sold could support over $100m in annual service revenue once running from mid-2027. At about 17x expected 2027 earnings, it looks cheapest in this space and is preferred to INNIO. … Show more
Fermi's pullback on its $375 million convertible note looks like a chance to buy the fear, because the capital funds its gigawatt-scale Project Matador AI power campus in Texas. Capped calls limit dilution for shareholders up to $14.64 a share. Demand for dense, redundant power for hyperscalers keeps accelerating, with reports of possible major tenant interest such as OpenAI. Analyst targets sit well above the price, and with the proxy fight over, management can focus on execution. x.com
Fermi carries a true chance of going to zero, so it can't be owned outright, even though it may well get a deal done in time. In a world of high energy costs and constant backlash against turning backyards into data centers, Fermi holds a strong hand. @rahmbotrades sees a good chance Amazon partners with Fermi for its Amarillo build-out, citing an updated Amazon job listing for a data center cluster operations leader. x.com
Vistra is locking in high-margin capacity revenue as AI demand tightens the grid. PJM's latest auction cleared at the $325/MW-day cap, and Vistra cleared 10,924 MW, securing up to $1.3B for 2028/29 with virtually no fuel cost. Its $4.7B purchase of ten Cogentrix gas plants adds 5,500 MW in PJM and ERCOT, the tightest AI-heavy markets. As an independent producer with a 20-year, 2,609 MW nuclear deal with Meta, it sells at market prices unlike capped utilities, and expects 20%+ FCF growth. x.com … Show more
Higher financing and build costs squeeze short-term returns for neoclouds. Iran-linked fuel inflation raises Fed hike risk; even better projects may borrow in the low 7s, while weaker ones risk dilution or delays. CoreWeave, IREN, Nebius, New Era Energy & Digital and WhiteFiber need higher contract dollars per MW to offset costs. Funded projects with strong customers and liquidity fare better, but almost none can fund the next phase without easier markets. No need to panic. x.com x.com
Fermi is a fraud, and the market has always known it: former governor Rick Perry is building a product called the Donald Trump generating plant. @FuzzyPandaShort, which is short Fermi, reports that CEO Toby Neugebauer departed and cites accusations of C-level executives involved in fraud schemes with him. x.com
Bitcoin miners and data-center operators that already control power, sites and interconnection, including IREN, Cipher Mining, Riot Platforms, Hut 8 and MARA, just became more valuable as Texas severely constrains new data-center capacity. Governor Greg Abbott says no new data centers are coming on board and they must not take power or water needed by communities; only projects bringing their own will clear. Regulators have under 10% of the data they need, and no special session is set. x.com … Show more
