Asymmetric Bets
Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals
Snowflake is likely to be a huge long-term winner as enterprises that want to own the AI stack keep their own sovereign data vault rather than rent general-purpose models. With the big three hyperscalers building chips to replace Nvidia, Nvidia is using open-weight models like Nemotron and sovereign neoclouds like Boost Run to bypass them. Boost Run and Nebius should see the biggest revenue inflection; Snowflake and Databricks are the longer-term winners. x.comÂ
Snowflake is evolving from a cloud data warehouse into the default data and AI control plane for large enterprises, an inflection the market misses by treating it as a maturing former hypergrowth name. The shift shows in customer commitments, workload expansion and platform centrality, supporting a credible path to $500. @buccocapital notes a customer rebuilt Gainsight on Snowflake in five hours, suggesting it may be the assailant in the SaaSpocalypse rather than a victim. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's CUDA retains developers, putting it among 12 stocks that could dominate the decade ahead. Nebius's GPU rental price rise signals demand; Fabrinet and Credo supply AI connectivity. DraftKings has betting scale; Microsoft has Azure and an OpenAI partnership; Figma anchors design work; Shopify powers stores. TeraWulf pivots power sites to AI leases; Constellation, the largest US nuclear operator, signs big-tech power deals; Meta spends on AI; Uber has autonomous-vehicle partnerships. x.com … Show more
OpenAI and Anthropic will eat Snowflake's and Databricks' business. Both cloud data platforms are cooked. x.comÂ
Snowflake is the AI data cloud that enterprises use as a secure, governed foundation to run AI agents and generative AI at scale on their existing data. It has strong ties to OpenAI, through a $200 million multi-year deal, plus Microsoft, Anthropic, AWS, Google Cloud, Accenture, SAP and Palantir. The chart shows a pivot flip ahead of earnings on May 27. x.comÂ
Snowflake is overlooked AI infrastructure because every enterprise AI model needs clean, governed data to run on. It has 126% net revenue retention, $9.77 billion of contracted future revenue and 813 of the world's 2,000 largest companies as customers. x.comÂ
Snowflake now looks really expensive against a $180-200 valuation, even though the business remains strong. It is growing around 30% and pushing hard into AI with its cloud data solutions, which could drive strong growth for years. x.comÂ
The shift to sovereign AI is moving demand from rented cloud tokens to owned, private infrastructure faster than Wall Street realizes. Recurring costs, vendor lock-in, compliance risk and rules like DORA and the EU AI Act push governments and big enterprises to control their stack. Palantir and Nvidia's integrated private stack lifted Nvidia's own supply allocation accuracy from 55% to 86.7%. Dell, HPE and Penguin gain from buildouts; mid-tier firms will turn to neoclouds like Nebius and IREN. … Show more
NVIDIA is steering toward highly diversified revenue, with enterprises and neoclouds a growing share, reducing its concentration in the largest hyperscalers and frontier AI labs. Law firm Latham & Watkins is buying NVIDIA servers and having its engineers fine-tune Nemotron 3 open-weight models in-house. NVIDIA's open-source push, including the Poolside and Hugging Face acquisitions, accelerates that diversification. x.comÂ
Snowflake keeps losing market share, and not just to Databricks. In hiring-demand mentions, Microsoft Fabric jumped 165% and Databricks grew 40% year over year, while Snowflake and Google BigQuery rose the least at 15%. x.comÂ
Nvidia, as the picks-and-shovels supplier, keeps winning even if AI models become commodities. Switching between Claude, Grok and OpenAI is already seamless and the differences are incremental, so the labs may race to the bottom on margins while still needing Nvidia's chips to train. x.com x.comÂ
