OpenAI and Anthropic will eat Snowflake's and Databricks' business. Both cloud data platforms are cooked. x.comÂ
FinXKing
Software Developer at Microsoft, Tesla/NVIDIA Commentary
AI agents are starting to do for free what Snowflake and other cloud software companies charge subscriptions for, erasing their pricing power. The same AI is a revenue engine for chips, as infrastructure spending flows through Nvidia, AMD and TSMC hardware. The split shows in markets: SOXX is up 25% from its March low while WCLD fell 5% and Snowflake 8.4%. x.comÂ
Snowflake keeps losing market share, and not just to Databricks. In hiring-demand mentions, Microsoft Fabric jumped 165% and Databricks grew 40% year over year, while Snowflake and Google BigQuery rose the least at 15%. x.comÂ
Snowflake is the AI data cloud that enterprises use as a secure, governed foundation to run AI agents and generative AI at scale on their existing data. It has strong ties to OpenAI, through a $200 million multi-year deal, plus Microsoft, Anthropic, AWS, Google Cloud, Accenture, SAP and Palantir. The chart shows a pivot flip ahead of earnings on May 27. x.comÂ
AI compute demand makes CoreWeave and Nebius probably not bad tactical buys. Anthropic had been slowing but accelerated in September, OpenAI is taking share, and open-source models still need compute. Credit issues remain, though worries feel near a peak and the stocks feel near a local bottom. x.comÂ
Open models still need GPUs, memory, networking and power, so cheaper intelligence can bring more workloads to hyperscalers' paid infrastructure. Gavin Baker notes that OpenAI and Anthropic's revenue misses parts of the AI economy. BEP's OpenRouter chart shows rising token use for selected open models; AWS, Microsoft and Google Cloud are illustrative beneficiaries, not verified hosts of those volumes. x.comÂ
Snowflake is evolving from a cloud data warehouse into the default data and AI control plane for large enterprises, an inflection the market misses by treating it as a maturing former hypergrowth name. The shift shows in customer commitments, workload expansion and platform centrality, supporting a credible path to $500. @buccocapital notes a customer rebuilt Gainsight on Snowflake in five hours, suggesting it may be the assailant in the SaaSpocalypse rather than a victim. x.com x.comÂ
The AI trade's biggest risk is not revenue concentration in Anthropic and OpenAI but whether scaling laws keep delivering better models that unlock valuable use cases. Steve Eisman, quoted by @firesidealpha, sees an OpenAI failure as the big risk, but that is like calling Amazon's dominance e-commerce's top risk 15 years ago. If Chinese labs or open models take share, they still need semis, and US enterprises' open models will mostly be hosted domestically by Amazon and others. x.comÂ
Software companies face a multi-year repricing because AI has removed the scarcity that made software valuable. For 20 years building software required engineers, letting SaaS firms charge monthly fees forever; when anyone can build a working product in a weekend with Claude, software stops being the moat. Atlassian is down 75%, HubSpot 69% and Figma 86%, and layoffs show headcount no longer scales with output. Survivors will be those with distribution, data and trust underneath. x.comÂ
Snowflake is likely to be a huge long-term winner as enterprises that want to own the AI stack keep their own sovereign data vault rather than rent general-purpose models. With the big three hyperscalers building chips to replace Nvidia, Nvidia is using open-weight models like Nemotron and sovereign neoclouds like Boost Run to bypass them. Boost Run and Nebius should see the biggest revenue inflection; Snowflake and Databricks are the longer-term winners. x.comÂ
AI is not killing software; it is killing the per-seat software model, which is why Salesforce, HubSpot, ServiceNow, Snowflake and Datadog are getting crushed. Companies will not keep paying for 100 Salesforce users, 50 HubSpot users and 30 ServiceNow users when five AI agents can do the same work around the clock. x.comÂ