Horizontal SaaS tools such as HubSpot, Atlassian and Intuit will be disrupted as companies build their own replacements with AI. Per @CJ0pp3l, quoting one of Constellation Software's AI leads, HubSpot, Jira, Mailchimp and Zendesk have been replaced with AI-built systems and agents, and only vertical software with strong systems of record and deep workflow integration will grow with AI. The market also sold vertical names like Constellation and Topicus, which hold deep platform data. x.com 

Seat-based software incumbents have no obvious right to win the AI shift, so buying SaaS on a rebound call is risky. Dan Shipper, on Lenny Rachitsky's podcast, said SaaS stocks will be up majorly in the next couple of years. But paradigm shifts rarely favor incumbents: these companies are slow and bloated, with business models that keep them from fully adopting AI, while rivals are AI-native. Asking customers what they buy and how they rate incumbents' AI features may change minds. x.com 

Software looks like a group that can lead the market higher, with many names from Palantir and ServiceNow to Zeta and MongoDB moving from late Stage 4 or Stage 1 into early Stage 2 uptrends. Sentiment is at an all-time low on fears that AI agents and chatbots will replace SaaS. AI will disrupt some areas, but many software businesses are using it to grow revenue, ship faster and expand operating leverage, and will thrive. The charts will separate survivors from the dead. x.com  x.com 

Little apps will be dirt cheap to build and run, arguably already are, making SaaS vendors easier to replace. The existential threat is greater than six months ago, and from a technical perspective the SaaS bear case is running ahead of schedule. Vendors that adapt have a massive opportunity, and some companies may be safe. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AI agents are starting to do for free what Snowflake and other cloud software companies charge subscriptions for, erasing their pricing power. The same AI is a revenue engine for chips, as infrastructure spending flows through Nvidia, AMD and TSMC hardware. The split shows in markets: SOXX is up 25% from its March low while WCLD fell 5% and Snowflake 8.4%. x.com 

Software stocks such as Adobe sold off on a threat that was never real: the AI labs' internal plans to compete with them were delusional and never a real possibility. x.com 

AI is forcing a repricing of the enterprise software business model, and for ServiceNow and SAP the reset is not finished. Claude Managed Agents eased production AI deployment, ServiceNow's AI bundling raised monetization questions, and SAP warned of short-term pain like its cloud-migration margin squeeze. Multiples compress before new economics are understood, and most software still trades at a premium on GAAP P/E and EV/FCF ex-stock comp. Workday at 1.7x revenue hints at a floor. x.com 

AI embedded throughout software could bring huge future token spend to Amazon and Alphabet, whose AWS and GCP clouds host software builders and offer AI platforms. Ramp data show VC-backed firms spend 10 times more per employee on AI monthly than PE-owned and other firms, a possible leading indicator of software using more tokens relative to people. VC-driven demand is vulnerable to capital-cycle swings, but longer term incumbent software may become AI-native or be replaced. x.com 

Enterprise software names such as Salesforce, GitLab and Atlassian now trade at roughly replacement cost and should recover about half of what they lost, the usual pattern after a panic. Valuing them on replacement cost rather than profit makes them look different: the bulk of AI value is enterprise-facing, and entrenching systems inside enterprises takes so long that, with people talking about a singularity within two years, no one will have time to build competitors. x.com  x.com 

Software stocks are losing their scarcity premium because the price of intelligence is collapsing faster than any technology on record. PC prices took 15 years to fall 90%; LLM prices did it in under three, and quality-adjusted intelligence became nearly free within 30 months. Every SaaS multiple was a bet that writing software stays expensive, and that bet is unwinding five times faster than in the PC era. Companies selling intelligence get squeezed, while those applying it gain. x.com