AI's threat to incumbent tech makes SpaceX the preferred investment for the next decade. AI has begun taking business from Google, with Amazon and Apple next; Microsoft's 27% workforce reduction program signals desperation. x.com 

Software companies face a multi-year repricing because AI has removed the scarcity that made software valuable. For 20 years building software required engineers, letting SaaS firms charge monthly fees forever; when anyone can build a working product in a weekend with Claude, software stops being the moat. Atlassian is down 75%, HubSpot 69% and Figma 86%, and layoffs show headcount no longer scales with output. Survivors will be those with distribution, data and trust underneath. x.com 

Adobe, Salesforce and ServiceNow still generate massive cash flow, push deeper into AI and sit at the center of enterprise operations. Three of the biggest SaaS names remain beaten up in 2026; their valuations have been crushed, but the long-term opportunity may not have been. The market has swung way too far against them. x.com 

Seat-based software is highly vulnerable in the AI era, while usage-based software with strong moats is the winning formula. AI agents can do many human tasks, shrinking seats and revenue at Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday, Atlassian, HubSpot, Zoom, DocuSign, Asana, monday.com, UiPath and Adobe. Usage-based models that charge for compute, data or outcomes, such as Snowflake, Datadog, Cloudflare, Palantir and CrowdStrike, tend to grow with AI activity. Switching models is slow and may fail. x.com 

AI has erased engineering complexity as a SaaS moat, so software survives only with compliance or data lock-in. Tyler Technologies, Veeva and Guidewire are anchored in government, pharma and insurance rules, where leaving means a compliance audit; Veeva's revenue rose 16% while its stock fell 25%. Palantir's ontology locks in customer data. Salesforce, Workday, Adobe and ServiceNow are seat-based with neither moat, and BlackLine and nCino, though regulated, never went AI-native. x.com 

Software stocks such as UiPath, HubSpot and ServiceNow are not about to be wiped out by AI, and a reported Silver Lake bid for Workday challenges that view. A seasoned tech investor willing to pay a huge sum, reportedly $50 billion, for a classic SaaS company fits poorly with the early-2026 thesis that AI would soon devalue enterprise software. The winners should become a control and automation layer linking AI agents, company data and workflows. The rally was partly short covering. x.com 

Horizontal SaaS tools such as HubSpot, Atlassian and Intuit will be disrupted as companies build their own replacements with AI. Per @CJ0pp3l, quoting one of Constellation Software's AI leads, HubSpot, Jira, Mailchimp and Zendesk have been replaced with AI-built systems and agents, and only vertical software with strong systems of record and deep workflow integration will grow with AI. The market also sold vertical names like Constellation and Topicus, which hold deep platform data. x.com 

Little apps will be dirt cheap to build and run, arguably already are, making SaaS vendors easier to replace. The existential threat is greater than six months ago, and from a technical perspective the SaaS bear case is running ahead of schedule. Vendors that adapt have a massive opportunity, and some companies may be safe. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Software looks like a group that can lead the market higher, with many names from Palantir and ServiceNow to Zeta and MongoDB moving from late Stage 4 or Stage 1 into early Stage 2 uptrends. Sentiment is at an all-time low on fears that AI agents and chatbots will replace SaaS. AI will disrupt some areas, but many software businesses are using it to grow revenue, ship faster and expand operating leverage, and will thrive. The charts will separate survivors from the dead. x.com  x.com 

AI embedded throughout software could bring huge future token spend to Amazon and Alphabet, whose AWS and GCP clouds host software builders and offer AI platforms. Ramp data show VC-backed firms spend 10 times more per employee on AI monthly than PE-owned and other firms, a possible leading indicator of software using more tokens relative to people. VC-driven demand is vulnerable to capital-cycle swings, but longer term incumbent software may become AI-native or be replaced. x.com