Visa's re-accelerating cross-border volume growth, combined with its current valuation, sets up potential for a rally. x.com  x.com 

Visa's volume and earnings growth show its network benefits from the global shift to digital payments. FY revenue rose 15% to $45.9B, adjusted EPS 16%, payments volume 9% and cross-border volume 13%. One of the world's highest-quality businesses, it is among the few most comfortable to hold for the next decade. Adjusted operating expenses rose 16%, ahead of revenue; client incentives rose 16% to $18.3B but threaten margins only if they get out of control. Regulation and litigation remain risks. … Show more

Visa's roughly 30x earnings multiple and $750 billion valuation leave less upside than other opportunities, even if it keeps executing; the best case may be another doubling over a few years. Its once-impenetrable moat may look different in five years, while its reputation as a safe compounder is already priced in. This is a relative judgment, not a prediction that Visa cannot keep rising. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Visa still collects the toll on payment rails, with ROIC near 38% against a cost of capital near 8% and about a 4% shareholder yield. Revenue rose 14% to $11.6 billion. The line to watch is cross-border, its highest-margin revenue: volume grew 12% but related revenue only 6%, so the price per transaction is slipping, and client incentives rose to 28.7% of gross revenue, where take-rate pressure shows first. About a third of EPS growth came from buybacks. x.com 

Visa and Mastercard look like attractive, safe cash machines at decade-low valuations, likely compounding 10-15% a year from here. Mastercard trades at 23x forward earnings, its lowest in a decade, and Visa at 22x; Mastercard just bounced off its 200-week moving average, untouched since 2022. They will not 10x in ten years but should protect the downside. Visa is slightly preferred for its sheer size, though Mastercard grows faster. x.com 

S&P Global, Mastercard, Visa, Moody's and Berkshire Hathaway have turned from portfolio ballast into funding shorts. These EPS compounders once pulled portfolios up alongside spicier longs, but they are never particularly cheap, Visa may rise only 4-5% on great earnings, and they can't be taken out. For most investors' horizons they are irrelevant next to momentum stocks that gap up 30% on narratives, so owning them now means being long funding shorts. That could change. x.com  x.com 

Visa and Mastercard are priced for a disruption that looks overdone, leaving two of the best compounders at decade-low multiples. Mastercard trades 34% below its 10-year median P/E, and Visa is similar. Stablecoins are about 2% of Visa's volume and years from replacing daily card use. The Credit Card Competition Act could cut fees from about 1.8-2.0% to 1.25%, with $10 billion-plus of industry revenue at stake, but analysts put its passage odds at 30-40%. x.com 

Visa's fiscal third quarter backs the case for an attractive risk/reward made at 21x earnings. Net revenue of $11.6 billion beat the $11.39 billion expected and rose 14%, while adjusted EPS of $3.32 beat $3.23 and rose 11%. Cross-border volume grew 13% and data processing revenue 17%. x.com 

Visa could move lower if higher expenses keep compressing margins into Q4. Q3 beat on adjusted EPS ($3.32 vs $2.98 expected), net revenue (+14% to $11.6 billion) and payments volume (+10%), but operating expenses rose 19% to $4.76 billion against $4.0 billion expected. Q4 guidance calls for low-double-digit expense growth versus 8% expected and EPS growth at the low end of mid-teens versus 16%. It could drop like American Express last week if the call confirms margin compression continues. x.com 

Visa and Mastercard are at their most reasonable valuations in nearly a decade while remaining as dominant as ever. The duopoly takes a small slice of nearly every digital payment worldwide, with no credit risk, near-unbeatable moats and legendary margins. In the 2021 bubble they traded at 50-60 times free cash flow, leaving little margin of safety; normalization and temporary headlines have cut that to the mid-to-high 20s. A rare chance to buy two elite compounders at a steep discount. x.com