Visa's roughly 30x earnings multiple and $750 billion valuation leave less upside than other opportunities, even if it keeps executing; the best case may be another doubling over a few years. Its once-impenetrable moat may look different in five years, while its reputation as a safe compounder is already priced in. This is a relative judgment, not a prediction that Visa cannot keep rising. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

American Express's credit risk keeps its multiple below Visa's or Mastercard's, but that persistently low valuation lets management retire shares steadily. At 16x forward earnings it is not especially cheap by its own history; 28% of shares were retired over ten years. Buying here looks more like owning a steady cash-returning compounder than expecting extraordinary returns. x.com 

Visa is a quality compounder whose stock has lagged its earnings. Over the last decade it grew EPS at more than twice the rate of its transaction volume. Over the past five years, EPS rose 138% while market cap rose only 40%, a big discrepancy for one of the greatest businesses on the planet. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Visa and Mastercard, as AI losers, can do nothing to change the narrative except accelerate. Unless sentiment shifts, AI progress stops or the paradigm changes, it is accelerate or die. Markets may eventually adjust if such vulnerable businesses stay unimpacted, but that may take several years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

US large-cap equities face an AI-leadership valuation reset, not yet a recession selloff. AI capex is outrunning visible monetization, and semiconductors were the most crowded trade in Bank of America's July survey, so stocks can beat estimates and still fall. Brent near $100 and a 4.68% 10-year yield compress multiples, and the S&P 500 entered at about 20.1x forward earnings versus a 19.0x 10-year average. Big Tech earnings and the late-July Fed meeting will decide if a deeper reset follows. … Show more

Visa and Mastercard are at their most reasonable valuations in nearly a decade while remaining as dominant as ever. The duopoly takes a small slice of nearly every digital payment worldwide, with no credit risk, near-unbeatable moats and legendary margins. In the 2021 bubble they traded at 50-60 times free cash flow, leaving little margin of safety; normalization and temporary headlines have cut that to the mid-to-high 20s. A rare chance to buy two elite compounders at a steep discount. x.com 

Visa and Mastercard are priced for a disruption that looks overdone, leaving two of the best compounders at decade-low multiples. Mastercard trades 34% below its 10-year median P/E, and Visa is similar. Stablecoins are about 2% of Visa's volume and years from replacing daily card use. The Credit Card Competition Act could cut fees from about 1.8-2.0% to 1.25%, with $10 billion-plus of industry revenue at stake, but analysts put its passage odds at 30-40%. x.com 

Visa's re-accelerating cross-border volume growth, combined with its current valuation, sets up potential for a rally. x.com  x.com 

Visa and Mastercard look like attractive, safe cash machines at decade-low valuations, likely compounding 10-15% a year from here. Mastercard trades at 23x forward earnings, its lowest in a decade, and Visa at 22x; Mastercard just bounced off its 200-week moving average, untouched since 2022. They will not 10x in ten years but should protect the downside. Visa is slightly preferred for its sheer size, though Mastercard grows faster. x.com 

Visa trades near 10-year-low valuation multiples even as one of the world's top investors holds 20% of his portfolio in it and bought more last quarter. x.com