Nasdaq-100 stocks and NVIDIA look like a dip to buy because a 1%-plus gap down over a tweet doesn't add up given how resilient the market has been to data. Hotter-than-expected payrolls, slightly warm PPI and an 80% chance of a rate hike did not bring the market down, though yields did on Thursday, and stocks rose on in-line CPI. This is an initial read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100's bull market looks set to continue as whale accumulation surges, despite recession warnings that permabears have repeated since late 2022. Cyclical bull markets typically last three to six years and secular ones 15 to 20. x.com 

QQQ's remaining earnings, macro and election hurdles set up one more dip to punish late chasers. The index looks good and is pricing in some good news today, but Amazon, Intel and SanDisk earnings plus PCE and GDP arrive tomorrow, followed by AMD earnings and elections Tuesday. Expect one more, probably modest, dip Wednesday or Thursday next week before November's upward seasonality takes effect. x.com 

Favoring the Nasdaq 100 over small caps remains right because the digital economy has changed market structure, and AI is accelerating that shift. Fading QQQ against IWM has been the widowmaker trade in US equities since the iPhone launch. The Magnificent 7 are breaking out to new all-time highs as AI enters a consumer-agent stage, while small caps suffer from fears over rates and oil. Breadth warnings are everywhere, but the structure has changed: adapt or die. x.com 

The Nasdaq-100 is more likely to avoid a selloff after tomorrow's Fed decision than markets expect. A 25 bp hike is priced in; what isn't is whether more follow. A hike with a neutral tone, or no hike with a hawkish tone, would bring a choppy rally into the weekend; no hike with a neutral or dovish tone would bring a face-ripping rally; only a hike with a hawkish tone means a selloff. The lean is toward no hike, with the caveat that this could be very wrong. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 faces pressure from a more hawkish Fed vote. The Fed held rates, but the 9-3 vote was much worse than June's 12-0, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissenting in favor of a 25bp hike. The market had priced about a 25-33% chance of a hike, so it is hawkish on the margin but not as bad as an actual hike; Asia may panic over the dissents. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Shorting the Nasdaq-100 looks unwise here. The McClellan Oscillator is at levels not seen since the tariff lows, yet with oil and yields surging the index sits inches from all-time highs. Good news on top of PCE, such as from Micron or the jobs report, could push it higher. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100's options structure remains bullish, with QQQ in positive gamma and gamma extending up toward 760. The 740-750 zone, traded repeatedly for months, is where positions are being digested, so a breakout may take time; as long as 740 holds, this is high-level consolidation. Volatility sellers dominate, keeping the VIX pinned near 15, and if spikes toward 16-20 keep getting sold, the backdrop for risk assets is unchanged; the VIX could reach 13 in October. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100's bounce back near all-time highs on Iran deal hopes gave bulls a false sense of safety, and it is now back at the April levels it belonged at on a risk-weighted basis after ceasefire claims proved false. A 30% rise in 32 trading days on "Iran wants a deal" was never normal enough to hold. x.com  x.com 

With the Fed meeting behind it, the Nasdaq 100 is entering its next phase of expansion; the recent pullback was a re-accumulation opportunity, not a time to raise cash. Stocks are filling gaps and moving back into attractive areas, so cash set aside before the drop should now be deployed into the dislocation ahead of the next leg higher. x.com