Nasdaq-100 downside could accelerate if QQQ falls below $712: dealer positioning at $700 and $690 would fuel the move unless the index reclaims its moving averages and breaks upward. July and September FOMC lows remain untouched, something that has not persisted across two consecutive meetings; taking out at least one in the next week would not be surprising. x.com 

The Nasdaq-100 looks set for a roughly 7% drop over the next month and a half, driven by expected election turmoil. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.2% and the dollar index at 101, and the setup rhymes with October 2018. The main risk is a flip higher from here or a move 3% above the previous all-time high; a short-term rip before the decline is possible amid month-end flows. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Shorting the Nasdaq-100 looks unwise here. The McClellan Oscillator is at levels not seen since the tariff lows, yet with oil and yields surging the index sits inches from all-time highs. Good news on top of PCE, such as from Micron or the jobs report, could push it higher. x.com 

QQQ's remaining earnings, macro and election hurdles set up one more dip to punish late chasers. The index looks good and is pricing in some good news today, but Amazon, Intel and SanDisk earnings plus PCE and GDP arrive tomorrow, followed by AMD earnings and elections Tuesday. Expect one more, probably modest, dip Wednesday or Thursday next week before November's upward seasonality takes effect. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 looks ready for a gap down, leaving trimming with trailing stops or sitting on the sidelines as the only way to survive. x.com 

With the Fed meeting behind it, the Nasdaq 100 is entering its next phase of expansion; the recent pullback was a re-accumulation opportunity, not a time to raise cash. Stocks are filling gaps and moving back into attractive areas, so cash set aside before the drop should now be deployed into the dislocation ahead of the next leg higher. x.com 

The 10-year yield above 5% limits how far the US equity rally can stretch, even as stocks shrugged off the Fed hold. Two policymakers wanted a hike, the 10-year rose to about 5.04%, and bonds sold while all four major indices closed higher. Rates need to cool for the rally to extend. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 faces pressure from a more hawkish Fed vote. The Fed held rates, but the 9-3 vote was much worse than June's 12-0, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissenting in favor of a 25bp hike. The market had priced about a 25-33% chance of a hike, so it is hawkish on the margin but not as bad as an actual hike; Asia may panic over the dissents. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq-100 is more likely to avoid a selloff after tomorrow's Fed decision than markets expect. A 25 bp hike is priced in; what isn't is whether more follow. A hike with a neutral tone, or no hike with a hawkish tone, would bring a choppy rally into the weekend; no hike with a neutral or dovish tone would bring a face-ripping rally; only a hike with a hawkish tone means a selloff. The lean is toward no hike, with the caveat that this could be very wrong. x.com 

US equities could see a bounce followed by a bigger slide, given the latest surge in yields. x.com