Deep Inference
Partner at Aion Analytics, Quantitative Markets Research
BitMine Immersion is setting up for a sharp rally as crypto finds a short-term bottom and global liquidity improves, a turn that should restore Tom Lee's standing. Its chart is breaking a structural downtrend for the first time in a long while, and its relative-strength score jumped from single digits to 69 in 10 days, lifting its rank from near 1,100 to 345. Bitcoin holding $74,000 and Ether reclaiming $2,300 support the setup. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
The AI stack's prolonged selloff may have already de-risked it ahead of Anthropic's IPO. The mid-November IPO could mark a bottom rather than trigger another sectorwide selloff like earlier mega-IPOs. Nebius, IREN and Cipher Mining do not look likely to fall much further; the same goes for Applied Optoelectronics and AXT. From June highs, Cipher is down about 73%, IREN 62%, Nebius 45% and WhiteFiber 78%. x.com x.com
Coinbase's fundamental and technical stories now match, as Circle's leadership has changed sentiment for crypto names and wider crypto access connects directly to Coinbase's platform. The stock is showing relative strength against Bitmine and Strategy, with an undercut-and-reclaim of its daily 9/50 EMA cluster heading into FOMC that could produce a good move. x.com
BitMine is likely to trade sideways with ETH and could retest its lows while holding above the February low, and its premium to mNAV could compress as SharpLink's did. The read on crypto's direction since March has been on the weaker side, so the view is held loosely. x.com x.com
ETH could be more explosive now that BitMine's mNAV is above 1, letting it accumulate faster in a positive feedback loop. ETH is making higher highs and higher lows, and as supply shrinks the bid accelerates for now. To a post doubting BitMine will keep buying once it nearly completes its 5% of supply, the reply is a recollection that BitMine said a few months ago it might slow after 5%, but not stop. x.com x.com
BitMine's perpetual preferred, BMNP, is trading at par for the first time ever, a bullish sign for BitMine. x.com
Bitmine Immersion's structure is broken: it trades at $21.04 against NAV of $22.46 per share, a 6% discount, even as ETH rises. Management keeps diluting shareholders, and Tom Lee is paid on performance against ETH, so he is compensated even when Bitmine underperforms while shareholders absorb dilution. The actual share count only surfaced two weeks ago. Holders may never capture ETH's upside through this vehicle, and a class action lawsuit may be brewing. x.com
Bitcoin appears near a local bottom: MARA's reported sale of 996 BTC is another contrarian bottom indicator. x.com
BNB remains one of the most certain crypto assets after bitcoin because Binance's lead in people, money and resources cannot be shaken soon. In bear markets BNB tends to range within its monthly channel, and last cycle monthly corrections held the uptrend line, which should continue barring a systemic Binance problem. A move into $497-552, between trendline and channel floor, would be worth considering; otherwise bitcoin comes first. Rising BTC exchange activity and launchpools would help. x.com
BitMine Immersion Technologies is one to stay far away from, because Tom Lee hurt shareholders by diluting the stock below NAV to reach a large payout tied to BitMine's ETH holdings. x.com x.com
Bitcoin's higher time frames may be entering a major bullish trend, so a slip in the daily trend matters little, and smart money is accumulating. Bitcoin has bottomed after a double failed breakdown below its 2025 low followed by a reclaim and its first bullish trend since, which points to at least $100,000. This could become its largest bullish trend ever, given the largest institutional backing it has ever had. x.com
