Yimin X
Founder of YX Insights, Ex-FX/Rates Market Maker
Bitmine Immersion's structure is broken: it trades at $21.04 against NAV of $22.46 per share, a 6% discount, even as ETH rises. Management keeps diluting shareholders, and Tom Lee is paid on performance against ETH, so he is compensated even when Bitmine underperforms while shareholders absorb dilution. The actual share count only surfaced two weeks ago. Holders may never capture ETH's upside through this vehicle, and a class action lawsuit may be brewing. x.com
ETH could be more explosive now that BitMine's mNAV is above 1, letting it accumulate faster in a positive feedback loop. ETH is making higher highs and higher lows, and as supply shrinks the bid accelerates for now. To a post doubting BitMine will keep buying once it nearly completes its 5% of supply, the reply is a recollection that BitMine said a few months ago it might slow after 5%, but not stop. x.com x.com
BitMine Immersion is setting up for a sharp rally as crypto finds a short-term bottom and global liquidity improves, a turn that should restore Tom Lee's standing. Its chart is breaking a structural downtrend for the first time in a long while, and its relative-strength score jumped from single digits to 69 in 10 days, lifting its rank from near 1,100 to 345. Bitcoin holding $74,000 and Ether reclaiming $2,300 support the setup. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
BitMine Immersion Technologies is one to stay far away from, because Tom Lee hurt shareholders by diluting the stock below NAV to reach a large payout tied to BitMine's ETH holdings. x.com x.com
Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com x.com
BitMine's buybacks below NAV should drastically boost shareholder value while its larger staked ETH position increases potential staking income. Its mNAV is about 0.88x; it repurchased 22.9 million shares for $399.6 million in 2026. It holds 6.05 million ETH, with about 5.23 million staked, and projects $318 million in annualized staking revenue. x.com x.com
ETH should stay stuck for a long time because of the many trapped buyers created by BitMine and Tom Lee. Nearly every use case for it has been tried since 2019, and tokenization is more exciting than ETH itself. x.com
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.com
BitMine's perpetual preferred, BMNP, is trading at par for the first time ever, a bullish sign for BitMine. x.com
SharpLink Gaming looks unattractive mid term, as many Bitcoin treasury companies rely on a model that turns fragile once the premium to their holdings compresses and capital raising gets harder. Upside is limited relative to downside. Price holds near $6 support and a short-term move toward $6.57 is possible, but any bounce is a short-term trade, not a high-conviction long-term investment. Only reclaiming higher resistance would make the view more constructive. x.com