Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy is a disclosed Ponzi that is now unwinding, with much more downside ahead and an eventual path to zero. As bitcoin-treasury hype fades, raising money to keep the scheme going gets harder, while interest costs keep accumulating on instruments such as its STRC preferred. That liquidity drain is what will take Strategy down. x.com 

Strategy is not worth buying even below $100 because Michael Saylor cannot be trusted. For leveraged bitcoin exposure, bitcoin ETF calls are the better choice. x.com 

Strategy's new capital framework marks a shift to selling bitcoin at a loss to cover debts, at best a graceful unwind and more likely a head fake before lower. Having issued perpetual preferreds and converts against an asset with no cash flow, and with more common dilution untenable, it becomes a permanent bitcoin seller whose stack shrinks each year. Saylor sits on about $14B of unrealized losses, and 1920s investment trusts that sold holdings to buy back shares entered a death spiral. x.com  … Show more

There is no reason to own Strategy until bitcoin has a bid, as it now solves huge problems with temporary fixes, like an emerging-market central bank. It is no longer a bitcoin buyer; crypto's $38 billion post-election buyer now carries solvency risk. Michael Saylor has repeatedly broken promises such as keeping NAV ratios and not selling bitcoin, making the equity riskier than BTC. That holds until treasury-company insolvency risk fades, rate cuts look likely and bitcoin regains appeal. x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com 

Strategy offers more upside than bitcoin because it is levered through fixed-dollar convertible debt and preferred equity: if bitcoin reaches $220,000 in 2028-29, it could deliver a much higher percentage return. It should benefit whenever bitcoin flips above $100,000 in the next few years. It can also fall twice as much as bitcoin, so holders must avoid getting stopped out. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is early below 1.5x its bitcoin net asset value, and the crowded short-Strategy, long-bitcoin trade is about to blow up, setting off short covering. Upcoming catalysts include STRC trading back at par, an Iran resolution with no rate hikes, and a momentum rotation into crypto after its underperformance relative to overpriced and crowded AI and software stocks. x.com 

Bitcoin, via the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF, looks completely mispriced in the short term. Institutions did not participate in the decline, and the largest institutional buy volume ever is concentrated at the $55 level. A $10 million buyer of in-the-money December calls, rolling the position, looks like an institution betting on a short-term reversal on top of long-term shares; risky, but it should work at some point. x.com  x.com