Strategy is not worth buying even below $100 because Michael Saylor cannot be trusted. For leveraged bitcoin exposure, bitcoin ETF calls are the better choice. x.com
Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Strategy runs a Ponzi-like loop: new capital buys bitcoin, which lifts the stock and attracts more capital, while the business makes almost no organic cash flow and collapses without constant raising. It trades at a big premium to NAV, effectively selling $1 of bitcoin for $1.50, lost $12.5B in Q1 2026, and has now sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 despite Michael Saylor's vow never to sell. Owning bitcoin itself makes more sense than owning Strategy. x.com x.com
Strategy common holders have been endlessly abused and diluted so Michael Saylor can keep his Ponzi afloat and avoid selling bitcoin, with the company issuing MSTR shares to raise USD cash. x.com
Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com
Strategy's premium looks exposed now that its 'never sell Bitcoin' story is retired. Selling 32 of 843,706 BTC is a rounding error, but it reveals a structured, dividend-driven mechanism to liquidate BTC when preferred stock obligations require it. Strategy has five preferred series, some paying 10-11.5%, and those payments don't care what bitcoin does. Saylor's math that bitcoin need only grow 2.3% a year to cover dividends forever holds only if bitcoin cooperates. x.com
Strategy common stock and bitcoin holders will lose before the preferred holders, by definition of the capital structure. Michael Saylor was sold a leverage product by Wall Street, and his Bitcoin Yield metric proved as flawed an accounting measure as community-adjusted EBITDA. A post by @jdorman81 argues the push into $15 billion of preferreds, carrying $1.5 billion a year in dividends, bet on bitcoin soaring and badly strained the balance sheet when it fell. x.com
Strategy offers more upside than bitcoin because it is levered through fixed-dollar convertible debt and preferred equity: if bitcoin reaches $220,000 in 2028-29, it could deliver a much higher percentage return. It should benefit whenever bitcoin flips above $100,000 in the next few years. It can also fall twice as much as bitcoin, so holders must avoid getting stopped out. x.com x.com
Strategy selling bitcoin breaks the story and the brand of Michael Saylor and his company, whatever the reason. Saylor attributes the sales to capital management, but for a company built on continuously buying bitcoin and never selling, the move undercuts its core identity. x.com
Strategy is effectively a leveraged ETF paying high dollar interest rates to buy bitcoin, a currency that earns no interest, so the whole structure only works if bitcoin delivers capital gains. x.com
Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com
There is no reason to own Strategy until bitcoin has a bid, as it now solves huge problems with temporary fixes, like an emerging-market central bank. It is no longer a bitcoin buyer; crypto's $38 billion post-election buyer now carries solvency risk. Michael Saylor has repeatedly broken promises such as keeping NAV ratios and not selling bitcoin, making the equity riskier than BTC. That holds until treasury-company insolvency risk fades, rate cuts look likely and bitcoin regains appeal. x.com … Show more