Bitcoin options show near-term midterm hedging but more upside bets by late November and December. November 6 bets spanned $75.2K-$85.1K, with puts in greater demand and costing more; at the time checked, November 27 had 1.7 calls per put and December 25 had 1.5. A weekly close below $75K is not expected, and the base case is chop between $75K and $93K until around next April. x.com  x.com 

SharpLink Gaming looks unattractive mid term, as many Bitcoin treasury companies rely on a model that turns fragile once the premium to their holdings compresses and capital raising gets harder. Upside is limited relative to downside. Price holds near $6 support and a short-term move toward $6.57 is possible, but any bounce is a short-term trade, not a high-conviction long-term investment. Only reclaiming higher resistance would make the view more constructive. x.com 

Strategy should trade at 0.5-0.6x mNAV, because crypto treasuries are designed grift vehicles with failing operating businesses. GBTC went from a 50% premium to a 50% discount to NAV once it became an efficient ETF, and crypto treasuries face the same dynamic, perhaps worse. This time is not different. x.com 

Seller pressure on Strategy shares has completely faded, bringing a reversal closer. The Cryptic Bottom Index is moving into its yellow region; every previous green alert marked an area where shares eventually bottomed and reversed higher. Buyer pressure has yet to return. An expansion toward $700-plus is one potential higher-timeframe scenario. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's cleared gamma flip and heavy calls at $157.50 underpin its near-term upside setup. It is the only buy-zone trade among the crypto treasury names shown. The dealer pivot is $147.85, with targets of $157.50 by October 16 and $165 by October 23; $150 must hold, and a daily close below $149.95 ends the setup. x.com 

Metaplanet's Q3 bitcoin sale and buyback revealed a lack of transparency and values misaligned with shareholders', after the Series 10 stock-rights episode. On Aug 12 CEO Simon Gerovich wrote that no bitcoin had been sold; nine days later 10,000 BTC began moving from its published addresses to Coinbase Prime, and the sale was disclosed only on Oct 5. Its shares will likely recover when bitcoin surges, but other companies are better positioned morally, structurally and reputationally. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's new capital framework marks a shift to selling bitcoin at a loss to cover debts, at best a graceful unwind and more likely a head fake before lower. Having issued perpetual preferreds and converts against an asset with no cash flow, and with more common dilution untenable, it becomes a permanent bitcoin seller whose stack shrinks each year. Saylor sits on about $14B of unrealized losses, and 1920s investment trusts that sold holdings to buy back shares entered a death spiral. x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin is nearly done as momentum has vanished and the world has largely moved on from it. If it saw true inflows, it wouldn't be this weak while markets hit all-time highs in a risk-on environment. It needs an 80% rise just to regain its all-time high, and talk of $1 million bitcoin or matching gold's market cap is over. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin and other risk assets are back after the Treasury signaled a liquidity injection, essentially turning the printer on. Falling long-term yields reflect markets pricing possible explicit or implicit yield curve control more than the buybacks themselves, which remain minor relative to net issuance. Short sellers are out of juice, and no bad news over the past three months has taken bitcoin below $60,000; with Saylor selling too, the bottom is in. x.com  x.com 

There is no reason to own Strategy until bitcoin has a bid, as it now solves huge problems with temporary fixes, like an emerging-market central bank. It is no longer a bitcoin buyer; crypto's $38 billion post-election buyer now carries solvency risk. Michael Saylor has repeatedly broken promises such as keeping NAV ratios and not selling bitcoin, making the equity riskier than BTC. That holds until treasury-company insolvency risk fades, rate cuts look likely and bitcoin regains appeal. x.com  … Show more