Heavy inflows could lift Strive's mNAV above Strategy's for periods because they have more impact on the smaller company. Strive could do even better than 6x versus Strategy's 4x, as investors seek the faster Bitcoin treasury stock. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's common stock faces ongoing selling, as Saylor will likely keep issuing MSTR to fund STRC dividends while it trades above 1x mNAV, then eventually cut STRC dividends unless Bitcoin rallies hard. Cutting the dividend is simpler than selling Bitcoin, despite claims he can't because he'd lose future STRC raises. Jeff Dorman puts 70% odds on Strategy continuing to sell small amounts of MSTR monthly at non-accretive levels, crushing the stock toward 0.70x mNAV. x.com 

Bitcoin treasury companies will and should trade at a discount to NAV, since money in a double-tax structure has no reason to trade at a premium to money. Participants are harvesting the premium against each other in a zero-sum game until it flips to a discount, in bull or bear markets. Since tracking began, bitcoin rose 4.9% and Strive's bitcoin holdings 4.7%, yet Strive shares fell 14.8%, leaving bitcoin 19.7% ahead. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com 

Strategy is a disclosed Ponzi that is now unwinding, with much more downside ahead and an eventual path to zero. As bitcoin-treasury hype fades, raising money to keep the scheme going gets harder, while interest costs keep accumulating on instruments such as its STRC preferred. That liquidity drain is what will take Strategy down. x.com 

Strategy isn't a buy even at about 0.8x the value of its bitcoin holdings. The discount reflects market skepticism about management, liquidity and governance, as investors price in execution risk and potential structural issues beyond the BTC exposure. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is early below 1.5x its bitcoin net asset value, and the crowded short-Strategy, long-bitcoin trade is about to blow up, setting off short covering. Upcoming catalysts include STRC trading back at par, an Iran resolution with no rate hikes, and a momentum rotation into crypto after its underperformance relative to overpriced and crowded AI and software stocks. x.com 

Strategy's path of diluting shares to fund preferred dividends and interest becomes untenable as its premium to book and bitcoin prices fall, which could add reflexive downward pressure. As MSTR nears an effective strike around $25K bitcoin, the implied interest rate would exceed 15% a year given the dilution needed. A slide to a deep discount may end with BTC sales or a dividend suspension; after canceling preferred dividends it could be treated as a call option. A BTC rally would avert this. … Show more