Strategy is a debt trap disguised as genius: it keeps buying bitcoin with debt and preferred stock, yet bitcoin generates no income to service those obligations. Like a man buying rent-free houses on credit cards, it looks brilliant while prices rise and lenders keep saying yes, with the MSTR premium acting as that willing lender. If bitcoin falls and funding dries up, it is left to sell into a falling market, borrow at worse rates or dilute shareholders on ugly terms. x.com 

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is a disclosed Ponzi that is now unwinding, with much more downside ahead and an eventual path to zero. As bitcoin-treasury hype fades, raising money to keep the scheme going gets harder, while interest costs keep accumulating on instruments such as its STRC preferred. That liquidity drain is what will take Strategy down. x.com 

Strategy's STRC preferred was never as safe as a money market fund, and if both STRC and MSTR share dilution fail, the only way left to pay dividends is selling bitcoin. Believing STRC would stay at par forever while paying a junk-like 12% was financial illiteracy; per @betirement, it has now fallen below $90. Strategy says its bitcoin reserve gives it 32 years of dividend coverage. x.com  x.com 

Strategy offers prime risk/reward here unless Bitcoin keeps moving deeply lower. Saylor affirmed the company can pay its dividend for over two years and will prioritize always holding 12 months of dividend cash, alongside a new Digital Credit Capital Framework. Last week's FUD over Saylor, Strategy and its STRC preferred produced a strong candle below the prior low into a key demand area from the previous cycle, yet the stock kept its weekly bullish divergence. x.com 

Strategy may be forced to sell bitcoin because its STRC preferred has hit a record low of $83, well under its $100 par. That discount says the dividend is too low, and raising it means more cash out the door. Strategy has funded that cash by selling MSTR shares, but the premium that made dilution easy is almost gone, leaving bitcoin sales as the remaining option. x.com 

Strategy keeps diluting common shareholders with no end in sight, so bitcoin bulls are better off owning bitcoin directly. It sold another $544M of MSTR through its ATM last week, making its $25M STRC repurchase mere signaling, and bitcoin per share has fallen since June 1. Dilution makes it improbable the shares reach conversion on billions of convertible debt, and larger bitcoin sales grow likelier as the premium compresses, probably alongside a BTC drop. An FTX-style collapse is not expected. … Show more

Raising Strategy's STRC rate could lock common shareholders into costly dividends after sentiment improves. STRC is six times SATA's size; each 0.5-point hike costs $43m a year on existing shares, without evidence it can sustain par. Buybacks have pushed STRC toward par; as Bitcoin rises and daily payouts start, it will return to par at 12%. Reversing a hike without serious backlash may be difficult for 5-10 years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's common stock faces ongoing selling, as Saylor will likely keep issuing MSTR to fund STRC dividends while it trades above 1x mNAV, then eventually cut STRC dividends unless Bitcoin rallies hard. Cutting the dividend is simpler than selling Bitcoin, despite claims he can't because he'd lose future STRC raises. Jeff Dorman puts 70% odds on Strategy continuing to sell small amounts of MSTR monthly at non-accretive levels, crushing the stock toward 0.70x mNAV. x.com