Microsoft's AI spending is producing faster growth with better economics: Azure accelerated to 48% on a $100B+ base while capex was $39.4B, below expectations. Management then guided Azure to 49-50% and said demand still exceeds supply, ending the debate over whether AI investment is paying off. Overweight, $625 target. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nvidia's CUDA retains developers, putting it among 12 stocks that could dominate the decade ahead. Nebius's GPU rental price rise signals demand; Fabrinet and Credo supply AI connectivity. DraftKings has betting scale; Microsoft has Azure and an OpenAI partnership; Figma anchors design work; Shopify powers stores. TeraWulf pivots power sites to AI leases; Constellation, the largest US nuclear operator, signs big-tech power deals; Meta spends on AI; Uber has autonomous-vehicle partnerships. x.com  … Show more

Microsoft's Azure has little chance against Google Cloud and AWS because the AI infrastructure race is becoming a hardware race. Amazon has Trainium and Google has TPUs, while Microsoft is still supply-constrained, so rivals can scale faster and cheaper. @DJ1P2 counters that enterprise integration, hybrid distribution and software lock-in keep Azure a dominant AI powerhouse, still growing 40%. x.com  x.com 

Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Accelerating Azure and AWS growth shows hyperscaler buildout and monetization have not slowed. Microsoft reported 48% Azure growth and guided to 49-50%; Amazon expects AWS growth above 40% in 2027 and 2028, positive for the infrastructure trade. Amazon's growth is more capital intensive, with deeply negative free cash flow projected, though AWS margins remain healthy. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AI hyperscalers' heavy bond issuance can crowd out the corporate AI spending they depend on. After hyperscalers flooded the bond market all summer, a company rolling its Covid-era debt 5% higher has less left for an AI budget. And if every valuation and megatech management guide rests on commitments from Anthropic and OpenAI, they rest on unaudited financials never reported to the SEC. x.com  x.com 

Nebius' software efficiency and a possible end to heavy AI financing support a re-rating. Per @DrTomsLens, its engineers got about 43% more video output from the same GPUs, cutting compute cost per second by 30%; newer hardware alone is not enough without capable software teams. Oracle expects to fund growth from free cash flow in FY2029, suggesting capital-heavy AI providers may eventually outgrow debt and dilution. Google Cloud reported 103% revenue growth amid strong AI infrastructure demand. … Show more

Fast peer-cloud growth makes a bullish Amazon earnings view hard to resist. Azure grew 48% and Google Cloud 103%; the forecast is for 42%+ AWS growth. AWS is expected to grow over 40% annually over the next two years, so selling Amazon here risks missing that growth. x.com  x.com 

Amazon's AWS AI rents look limited because NVIDIA backs neoclouds and Anthropic can set AWS's cut of Bedrock Claude tokens. Those tokens run on AWS-funded Trainium. Enterprise AI earns ~2 points above capital cost in the 2035 base case; shared hyperscaler advantages and new rivals limit upside, though 1-5 points is plausible. Retail ads pose a fat-tail risk despite a base case that Amazon figures them out. Market skepticism about AWS capex has toned down the bearish view. x.com 

Alphabet's AI growth is harder to turn into cash because capacity shortages require rented compute while TPU system sales tie up inventory before delivery. Cloud grew 103%, with system sales contributing meaningfully; management expects rented compute to pressure Q4 Cloud margins. Q3 free cash flow was -$9.1B, partly reflecting inventory build and a one-off EU fine, while AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search. The dip is probably a buy with a reasonable timeframe. x.com  … Show more