Agrippa Investments
Hyper-Growth Stock Research
BillionToOne should keep taking share from Natera because its products' efficacy is far ahead, and it has a good chance of becoming a $100B-plus company. Few companies grow this fast with such an intriguing business model while already profitable. A share price above $100 does not make it expensive, since it has fewer than 50M shares outstanding and price per share says nothing about size or upside. x.com x.com x.comÂ
BillionToOne's technology and financials are much cleaner than Natera's, which another investor called the space's blue chip, so the market is focused on the wrong player. It also differs from GRAIL's Galleri, whose test lacks sensitivity and so lacks wide insurance coverage, though BillionToOne must launch MRD before moving into early cancer detection. It already has the technology and actively uses AI in its products. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Natera is the best short in diagnostics because its valuation demands accelerating KPIs that are likely to slow. Signatera is great, but growth should decelerate, while the legacy women's health business is highly penetrated and facing competition from BillionToOne. Opex should rise next year more than the buy side expects, and the stock is crowded with tourists. Even 25% sales growth for a decade with 25% EBITDA margins yields only about $250 a share on a DCF. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
BillionToOne is taking share in both prenatal testing and oncology thanks to patented technology that makes its tests more sensitive and specific. It is the only diagnostic peer that is GAAP profitable, and it may be best positioned to offer a genuinely useful early cancer detection test, adding optionality. On revenue it looks pricier, but its real comparables, Natera and Guardant Health, are about 50% more expensive while growing more slowly and earning less. x.com x.comÂ
The biotech and genomics boom is best owned broadly, because single biotech stocks are binary bets on trial results no analyst can handicap. One failed readout can halve a stock, as Novo Nordisk's lost market value on disappointing data showed. Owning blue-chip biotech and high-beta genomics as diversified baskets captures the funding rebound, the AI drug-discovery tailwind and the re-rating after years of deep bear market and a decisive breakout, without the single-molecule lottery. x.com x.com … Show more
