Zenolytics
Founder of Zenolytics, Portfolio Manager at T11 Capital
The Nasdaq may be regaining market leadership despite poor breadth, and if so, special things can happen. @OddStats shows weak past returns after the Nasdaq-100 rose at least 2.75% on a day its volatility index rose a point or more, but all but one of those cases came in secular bear markets, a radically different environment. Volume seems to be cooperating. A breakout across major indices would bring plentiful opportunities, but requires trusting price while every instinct says sell. x.com x.com x.com x.com
The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com x.com
The Roundhill Memory ETF looks vulnerable because its late launch fits the pattern of Wall Street selling hot themes to the public shortly before they top. DRAM was a monster trade of 2026 in April and May, led by Sandisk and Micron. It topped two months after debut and is rolling into Stage 4 against its 10-week EMA; the similarly late-launched FOTO photonics ETF topped in just two weeks. x.com
Rising S&P earnings revisions and a Nasdaq valuation far below the 2000 bubble level argue against a bull trap in US large caps. Nasdaq trades at 18x forward earnings versus over 80x in 2000. Positive breadth divergences, record short ETF exposure and put volume, and semiconductors waking up add to the case. In all 19 post-midterm instances cited, markets were very green over the following 12 months. x.com x.com
The Roundhill Memory ETF looks attractive because its largest daily buy volume in nearly two months extends the earlier accumulation sequence. Sellers may still have momentum; the bull case would be a large lower wick holding $60 into year-end. Calls to bet on it are extremely cheap. x.com
The Nasdaq 100 has a good chance of topping before year-end this year, breaking a streak that has held every year since 2022, because semiconductors are at a major top. Even after two 10% corrections in the index since June, everyone still wants to buy tech. x.com x.com x.com
A breadth thrust and fresh buying point to at least a multi-week rise in US indices, most probably a big rally for a few months after the midterms. LS Breadth is flipping bullish as the bear count falls; more stocks are starting uptrends and first consolidations. The Nasdaq 100 is bouncing with strong breadth, and the S&P 500 looks ready to leave a massive base. The Nasdaq 100 could sell off at declining averages but should rise if broad selling does not return. x.com
Accumulating macro headwinds have sharply raised Nasdaq 100 risk, so protect the portfolio. The bull market looks near its end rather than its beginning, although the timing of the top remains uncertain. x.com
Micron's surging memory revenue points to a supercycle. Its segment and NAND revenue charts show a sharp recent acceleration, while the stock tests its rising 30-week average. x.com
A positive CPI reaction and somewhat oversold chip and memory stocks should push the Nasdaq 100 green tomorrow. This is only a guess for Wednesday; whether the bounce fades afterward remains open for Thursday or Friday. x.com
Memory stocks are very cheap on P/E ratios even if the rate of their earnings growth has peaked. Big earnings growth still lies ahead, and big cash flow makes big buybacks likely, supporting significant new highs after this correction. SMH is in corrective mode before moving higher toward the raised $850 target, up from $800. x.com x.com x.com x.com