Mind Investor
Technical Stock Analyst & Investment Educator
The space-sector selloff dragged down by SPCX puts the wrong discount on AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and Redwire, because SPCX validates the investment case rather than weakening it. The space economy is projected to be one of the fastest-growing industries of the next 15 years, from $630 billion in 2026 to $1.5 trillion in 2030 and $2 trillion by 2040. The biggest opportunities arrive when good news creates the wrong reaction. x.comÂ
The global space economy is heading toward $1 trillion and is the fastest-growing industry of the next decade. Rocket Lab is now an end-to-end space platform, MDA Space is the picks-and-shovels business behind next-generation satellites, AST SpaceMobile turns every smartphone into a satellite phone, Redwire provides infrastructure for the whole industry, and Planet Labs runs the world's largest Earth observation network. x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's ~$20B valuation prices in years of growth despite only $31M in revenue last quarter, leaving expectations vulnerable to an unwind even as the business progresses. Space communications remains attractive long term, but a sustained loss of $50.70 could deepen the correction toward $19-35; that move is not certain. Holding support and reclaiming $60-66 by month-end would improve the outlook. A 10-15% market correction could also cause a selloff without implying business failure. … Show more
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Listed space stocks were sold because SpaceX's IPO vacuumed up the sector's marginal dollar, not because their contracts stopped. AST SpaceMobile launched the three largest comm arrays ever, with 60 carriers signed; Rocket Lab booked $663M from the Space Force in nine days; Planet Labs' backlog exceeds annual revenue; BlackSky printed its first EBITDA-positive quarter; Firefly, a Golden Dome interceptor selectee, trades below its IPO price; and Redwire's revenue rose 90%. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and other space stocks face being dragged toward zero by SpaceX's stock drop. With SpaceX valued above $1 trillion, it can buy them out with all-equity offers, the mega-cap way, and that is already happening. x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are long-term holds because the space industry is massive and still very early. A sell-the-news reaction to the SpaceX IPO could hit space stocks short term, and profits may be taken on many space plays, but not on these sector leaders. x.com x.comÂ
Redwire is now less attractive because of a combination of macro conditions, drone market dynamics, management and the opportunity cost versus other ideas. Its revenues are also just too lumpy, which outweighs the case that the space business on its own remains strong. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
