Wayne Liang
Asymmetric Investment Research, Trade Alerts & Toolkits
Cybersecurity stocks look increasingly bullish on higher timeframes as capital rotates out of AI infrastructure. A new buy signal has appeared on the Startup indicators for the group; the indicators' earlier sell signal caught a roughly 20% drop and their buy signals a roughly 62% rally. The signal can still be invalidated before the weekly close, and the AI trade is not close to over. x.com x.comÂ
Cybersecurity is a growing need as AI fuels attacks, which have doubled since ChatGPT's release and risen 20% since September with agentic AI. That is bullish for cybersecurity stocks and bearish for convoluted systems, DeFi and self-custody; the Coldcard incident is just the beginning. x.comÂ
US large-cap equities stay a buy because an uninterrupted AI narrative is strong enough to overcome adverse macro developments. Core inflation in the high 2s or low 3s is not a big risk; stocks, the Fed and a sideways 10-year yield show little concern. As long as AI capex is not slowing, macro remains a dominated risk. A pullback is overdue, but its likelier catalyst is AI-related, such as a megacap like Meta cutting capex or open models reviving ROI questions, which would change the view. x.com … Show more
AI semiconductor stocks are falling because valuations priced in too much growth beyond 2026-27, not because fundamentals are worsening. With the sector ETF up more than 100% year to date at one point, Q2 earnings couldn't meet those expectations, and a crowded trade is deleveraging as everyone races for the same exit. Fundamentals are likely improving, so as positioning and valuation reset the trade can continue, but selectively. x.comÂ
The AI bull likely needs months of consolidation at minimum because more AI stocks are under distribution at once than at any point since the bull market began. Leadership passed from Nvidia, from 2023 to late 2024, to Palantir, through late 2025, to Sandisk, which topped in 2026. The AI bull can resume if and when new leaders step up. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
C3.ai, UiPath, SentinelOne and GitLab may be the ones being disrupted by AI rather than part of the disruption. The AI trade began in Q4 2022, and 3.5 years in, these companies are still telling stories about their pivot with little to show for it, while the strongest companies have surpassed their all-time and 2021 highs by a wide margin. A company with only narrative and no execution is the worst investment, tying up money with high opportunity cost on top of losses. x.com x.comÂ
Cisco has begun a new run after a massive technical breakout from more than 25 years below its previous all-time high, though it likely won't move as fast as AI infrastructure, chip and memory names. Its active venture arm is expanding aggressively into AI and security, including the $28 billion Splunk acquisition, the $400 million purchase of AI security startup Astrix and $1 billion invested in startups such as Cohere, Mistral AI and Scale AI. x.comÂ
NVIDIA, CoreWeave and Meta are worth buying even after rising since Friday, because a peace deal is fundamentally bullish for risk assets and the AI trade is nowhere near over. Five years from now, these stocks should look cheap. x.comÂ
AI compute shares face a new threat as AI giants collectively signal a slowdown, the first real cooling of the most crowded and expensive trade of the past year. Asia-Pacific stocks fell 0.9%, the KOSPI 3%, Nasdaq futures 1.2% and SoftBank as much as 13%. If AI capex slows, high-valuation tech must re-prove its profits; with Brent up 2.5% to $107.20 after a key Saudi pipeline closed and the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, inflation and rates are unlikely to ease fast. x.comÂ
SaaS will have its time in the sun again, and now, while it is still hated, is the time to pick favorites and build positions. Bearish sector narratives don't last forever, and the view that all SaaS is being disrupted should ease somewhat this summer, though multiples may not return to prior levels. Some SaaS names have little moat against Anthropic and peers, but many, especially cybersecurity and Palantir, are strengthened by the agentic push. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Nasdaq's momentum selloff looks like a crowded AI trade unwinding into cyclicals, a washout rather than a top. Goldman's high-beta momentum index fell 24% in early July, its worst since April 2009, per @stocktalkweekly, yet the index held as money rotated rather than left, with AI names de-rating even on TSMC's beat. The real risk is financing: AI capex has outrun cash flow and runs on cheap money, debt and vendor paper, so tighter credit could stall the buildout even with strong demand. … Show more
