MaxLinear still looks cheap relative to its expected EPS growth over the next 12-18 months. Fundamentals are very impressive, with revenue growth accelerating year over year and margins expanding. x.com
Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
MaxLinear's post-earnings reaction looks like an overreaction to solid growth. Q2 revenue rose 55% to $168.8M, infrastructure grew 145%, and adjusted operating margin expanded to 22.3% from 15.9%. Q3 guidance of $210-220M implies another ~27% sequential jump, 2026 optical data-center revenue guidance was raised again to $190-210M from $150-170M, and 1.6T products are in customer qualification. x.com
MaxLinear is one of only three makers of DSPs for 1.6T optical interconnects alongside $50B+ giants Marvell and Broadcom, yet is worth only about $8-9B. Per @BryzonX, it alone has secured fab capacity to mass-produce 1.6T from 2H26 through 2H27, and its DSPs have a 30% energy advantage. Marvell trades at roughly 32x sales; the same multiple on MaxLinear's $468M trailing revenue gives about $15 billion, nearly double, and more if revenue inflects hard on 1.6T. x.com x.com x.com
MaxLinear has strong operating leverage as its 800G optical data center ramp runs far faster than expected. Q3 revenue is guided up about 27% sequentially with flat OpEx, lifting operating margin near 28% on the way to 30%+. Weak cash flow reflects prepaying for 5nm wafers to meet a six-month backlog. FY26 optical guidance rose to $210-230M entirely from 800G, and 1.6T Rushmore, retimers and storage accelerators ramp in 2027-2028 with massive upside. The sell-off looks way overdone. x.com x.com
MaxLinear's optical data center business has hit an inflection point, and the stock could reach $70-80 this year. Q1 EPS of 22 cents beat the 18-cent consensus and revenue of $137.2M topped estimates, up 43% year over year as infrastructure grew over 130% to become its largest market. The CEO called Q1 the start of a multi-year growth phase, with a step-function revenue increase expected in Q2 from optical ramps at multiple hyperscale customers. x.com x.com
MaxLinear's earnings are expected to grow more than tenfold as data centers need more high-speed connectivity. Its chips move data between CPUs, GPUs, servers and switches, and EPS is expected to rise from $0.31 in 2025 to $3.31 by 2028. Technically, the stock is breaking out of a base and resuming its Stage 2 uptrend. x.com
MaxLinear's 1.6T roadmap threatens Credo's dominant AEC position with a specific share target. MaxLinear targets 20–30% of the 1.6T active electrical cable cycle, where its management estimates Credo has 93–99% share, initially across 1–2 US data centers. MaxLinear also reports 1.6T DSP and TIA design-win commitments, with initial revenue expected in 2027 and a stronger ramp in 2028. That competitive concern is behind Credo's pre-market drop. x.com
MaxLinear's AI optics ramp is now confirmed in its results and guidance. Q2 revenue rose 55% to $168.8M, beating estimates, operating margin jumped to 22.3% from 7.2%, and infrastructure grew 145% on optical AI data-center adoption. Q3 guidance of $210-220M implies 27% sequential growth. Keystone is ramping for 800G optics at hyperscale data centers, with 1.6T next, and a $19.7M inventory build suggests orders are already visible. x.com
MaxLinear is being repriced as a scale-up play: it is one of only three companies, with Marvell and Broadcom, making DSPs for 1.6T optical interconnects, yet is worth about $2B against their $50B+. Its Keystone DSP ships to multiple hyperscalers at 400G and 800G, and its Annapurna platform adds 1.6T AEC and 3.2T retimers for scale-up. Infrastructure revenue grew 130%, revenue is projected at $630M by 2028 from about $200M, and Applied Optoelectronics' 800G and 1.6T ramp needs DSPs. x.com
MaxLinear's PAM4 DSPs are crucial for 1.6T optical links. Headwinds remain from plenty of legal noise, such as the Silicon Motion merger that didn't go ahead. x.com