MaxLinear's post-earnings reaction looks like an overreaction to solid growth. Q2 revenue rose 55% to $168.8M, infrastructure grew 145%, and adjusted operating margin expanded to 22.3% from 15.9%. Q3 guidance of $210-220M implies another ~27% sequential jump, 2026 optical data-center revenue guidance was raised again to $190-210M from $150-170M, and 1.6T products are in customer qualification. x.com 

The Lumentum merger makes Marvell's path toward a $1 trillion valuation look clearer if it executes well. Jensen Huang had called Marvell the next $1 trillion company. Lumentum's demand is sold for the next two to three years, though whether that gives Marvell an edge remains an open question. Marvell looks like a long-term opportunity, but the route to building a position is still unclear. x.com 

Marvell looks interesting at less than 30x calendar-2027 EPS against expected 60-70% annual EPS growth, but overpaying for Lumentum could drive its shares lower. Marvell could pay up to $110B, roughly a 30% premium; the stock-versus-debt mix is unclear, and Lumentum holders might own a third of the combined company. If the deal falls apart, Marvell could rise 10-12%. x.com 

MaxLinear still looks cheap relative to its expected EPS growth over the next 12-18 months. Fundamentals are very impressive, with revenue growth accelerating year over year and margins expanding. x.com 

Marvell's new long-term model points to a $750-$900 stock by 2028-29. Management targets about $80B of revenue by CY2030, versus a $47B consensus, with a 55-60% revenue CAGR led by custom silicon growing 80% a year. Operating margins of 44-46% and opex growing at half the rate of revenue imply EPS above $30, versus $18 expected; 25-30x that gives $750-$900. Marvell has largely met its targets over the past decade, and the stock trades about 70% below its implied future value. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Owning Lumentum's laser fab could secure Marvell's FY28 supply and hedge its DSP franchise as optical links shift to CPO. The rumored deal's strategy makes sense, but short-term pain is likely: at a 30% premium, roughly $17.5B in new debt and the rest in stock, rough math puts EPS dilution near 15%. It turns accretive only if Lumentum outgrows Marvell at today's guided rates for five or six more quarters, which looks achievable while the laser shortage lasts. x.com  x.com  x.com 

MaxLinear's planned 1.6T AEC entry is too distant to justify the scale of Credo's selloff. Credo still has an estimated 90%+ AEC share and relationships with five of six major hyperscalers; MaxLinear expects initial revenue only in 2027 and a more meaningful ramp in 2028. Competition bears watching, but the market looks to be overreacting and Credo is starting to look ridiculously cheap. x.com  x.com 

River Eletec's speculative AI/HPC-adjacent technology looks worth more than its $38 million market cap. Its low-jitter 1.6T product may be sampled by Marvell, though that is a guess; past earnings have been disastrous. x.com  x.com 

Marvell's $70-90 billion FY31 revenue target looks credible: COO Chris Koopmans said key foundry, substrate and packaging suppliers get five-year forecasts and had already seen it before investor day. A $500 price target still looks too aggressive for now; Marvell must show it can grow its networking and photonics segment to deserve a safe price increase. x.com  x.com 

The market may still be underestimating Marvell as it becomes a key supplier of custom silicon and connectivity for the AI build-out. At its Investor Day, Marvell put its addressable market at about $400 billion by 2030, targeted about $20B of FY28 revenue and said revenue could reach $70-90B by FY31. Last quarter revenue rose 37% to $2.74B on AI and data-center demand, and Nvidia's Jensen Huang reportedly called Marvell the next trillion-dollar company. x.com  x.com