Deep Inference
Partner at Aion Analytics, Quantitative Markets Research
Constellation Energy owns the scarcest asset in the one commodity hyperscalers absolutely need: 24/7 firm clean power from the largest US nuclear fleet, 21 reactors and about 33 GW that cannot be replicated this decade. US power demand is growing fastest since WWII, and about 75% of carbon-free output is uncontracted, so each Microsoft- or Meta-style PPA re-rates earnings. Management guides 20% EPS CAGR through 2029, at 23x forward, with the PTC floor limiting downside. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy's long-term contracts and growing nuclear-power demand underpin its appeal. It signed 15- to 20-year deals with Google, Amazon and Walmart in 2026, yet its forward P/E has fallen to about 20x from a massive 2025 premium. It looks like an even better bet today. x.comÂ
Vistra's shift toward long-term hyperscaler contracts may warrant a higher multiple than its roughly 14x forward earnings, versus about 21x for Constellation. Its 3.8 GW of nuclear commitments with Meta and Amazon could reduce exposure to volatile wholesale prices; Lotus added 2.6 GW of gas capacity and the pending Cogentrix deal could add 5.5 GW. Further contracts and controlled leverage remain important to the upside case. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy's baseline is now strong enough to support the equity story without immediate new hyperscaler deals; AI and contracting add upside. Its new framework guides 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11.00-12.00 and 20%+ base EPS growth through 2029, excluding buyback accretion, with a $5.0B buyback and $3.9B of growth capital. Shares fell because management announced no new data center deal after expecting one by this call, and the EPS midpoint was slightly below consensus. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy is the only operator at scale that can supply the 24/7 baseload power every AI data center needs. Gas peakers can't carry it, grid interconnection queues run 4-7 years, and the US hasn't built a new commercial reactor in 30 years, while Constellation owns 22 GW of nuclear, the largest US fleet. Forward EPS of $13.57 at a 25-30x peer multiple implies $339-407 fair value versus $285.83 today, with capped supply and pricing power compounding for years. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy is one of the best value investments available, owning firm 24-hour power, the largest bottleneck in the AI buildout, where data centers are being built. It raised EPS guidance to $11.50-12.50 and signed 920MW of new nuclear PPAs averaging 18.5 years, including Walmart's first nuclear deal, with about 30% of its clean baseload fleet now contracted. The Crane restart is on track for 2H 2027, and it trades at 23x forward earnings, below last year's price. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy is landing a massive nuclear deal with Google, reinforcing its position as one of the best-placed beneficiaries of AI's need for huge amounts of reliable power. It is the largest US nuclear provider, producing roughly 20% of the country's nuclear power and about 10% of US clean energy. x.comÂ
Vistra is one of the best value investments in the market, positioned at power, the largest bottleneck in the AI buildout. It reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $6.8-7.6 billion adjusted EBITDA and $3.9-4.7 billion free cash flow, about 16x forward earnings and 9x EV/EBITDA, with 97%+ fleet availability through summer heat. Upside beyond that guidance comes from a 20-year, 2,609 MW nuclear deal with Meta, the $4.7 billion Cogentrix gas acquisition and a role powering Helix Digital Infrastructure. x.comÂ
Vistra's contracted growth over the next 18-24 months is not yet in its numbers. It has about 3,800MW of 20-year nuclear agreements with Meta and Amazon: Meta purchases across three plants start late this year and Amazon's 1,200MW Comanche Peak deal delivers from late 2027. It is also buying about 5,500MW of Cogentrix gas plants, and its $7.4-7.8B 2027 EBITDA range excludes both Cogentrix and the Meta contracts. It is 94% hedged for 2027 and 72% for 2028. x.comÂ
AI data centers' power needs support a portfolio spanning onsite generation, nuclear, grid hardware and fuel. Oklo offers onsite nuclear and Bloom fuel cells that bypass the grid; Constellation has nuclear baseload under a 20-year Microsoft PPA and Vistra a 20-year Meta deal. GE Vernova supplies grid hardware, Vertiv cooling and power systems, Eos long-duration storage and NextEra a renewable pipeline, while Centrus supplies HALEU for modular reactors and Energy Fuels domestic uranium. x.comÂ
AI's electricity shortfall creates a massive opportunity for companies solving the power bottleneck. Morgan Stanley estimates a 32 GW US data-center power shortfall by 2028. Constellation Energy and Vistra are nuclear names, Bloom Energy in fuel cells, GE Vernova in power generation and Eaton in grid infrastructure. x.comÂ
