GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Constellation Energy is the only operator at scale that can supply the 24/7 baseload power every AI data center needs. Gas peakers can't carry it, grid interconnection queues run 4-7 years, and the US hasn't built a new commercial reactor in 30 years, while Constellation owns 22 GW of nuclear, the largest US fleet. Forward EPS of $13.57 at a 25-30x peer multiple implies $339-407 fair value versus $285.83 today, with capped supply and pricing power compounding for years. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy runs more US nuclear than anyone, the only 24/7 baseload that scales to power AI. No US grid can run AI on gas and solar alone, so hyperscalers sign multi-year power deals with Constellation for datacenter power that never goes dark. Nuclear can't be permitted and built in a quarter, so its fleet is irreplaceable for a decade. A disappointing full-year guide changes none of that. At 19.7x forward earnings, 22-25x on a confirmed demand pipeline means $300-340 in 12-18 months. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy's long-term contracts and growing nuclear-power demand underpin its appeal. It signed 15- to 20-year deals with Google, Amazon and Walmart in 2026, yet its forward P/E has fallen to about 20x from a massive 2025 premium. It looks like an even better bet today. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy is one of the best value investments available, owning firm 24-hour power, the largest bottleneck in the AI buildout, where data centers are being built. It raised EPS guidance to $11.50-12.50 and signed 920MW of new nuclear PPAs averaging 18.5 years, including Walmart's first nuclear deal, with about 30% of its clean baseload fleet now contracted. The Crane restart is on track for 2H 2027, and it trades at 23x forward earnings, below last year's price. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy, owner of the largest US nuclear fleet, trades at 23x forward earnings while analysts expect 21% annual EPS growth and a 30x multiple. On those estimates, it would return about 23% a year, or 86% over three years. x.comÂ
Vistra's shift toward long-term hyperscaler contracts may warrant a higher multiple than its roughly 14x forward earnings, versus about 21x for Constellation. Its 3.8 GW of nuclear commitments with Meta and Amazon could reduce exposure to volatile wholesale prices; Lotus added 2.6 GW of gas capacity and the pending Cogentrix deal could add 5.5 GW. Further contracts and controlled leverage remain important to the upside case. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy's baseline is now strong enough to support the equity story without immediate new hyperscaler deals; AI and contracting add upside. Its new framework guides 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11.00-12.00 and 20%+ base EPS growth through 2029, excluding buyback accretion, with a $5.0B buyback and $3.9B of growth capital. Shares fell because management announced no new data center deal after expecting one by this call, and the EPS midpoint was slightly below consensus. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy owns the scarcest asset in the one commodity hyperscalers absolutely need: 24/7 firm clean power from the largest US nuclear fleet, 21 reactors and about 33 GW that cannot be replicated this decade. US power demand is growing fastest since WWII, and about 75% of carbon-free output is uncontracted, so each Microsoft- or Meta-style PPA re-rates earnings. Management guides 20% EPS CAGR through 2029, at 23x forward, with the PTC floor limiting downside. x.comÂ
Nuclear power is the most important unlock for the AI buildout, since data centers need huge baseload power the grid can't deliver fast enough amid 5-7 year queues. Trump orders fast-track advanced reactors, and Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle pledged to secure new generation. Constellation is the blue chip signing AI power deals; Oklo the SMR moonshot; Centrus the only licensed US enricher; Energy Fuels the top US uranium producer; Cameco the safest fuel-cycle large cap. … Show more
Constellation Energy is landing a massive nuclear deal with Google, reinforcing its position as one of the best-placed beneficiaries of AI's need for huge amounts of reliable power. It is the largest US nuclear provider, producing roughly 20% of the country's nuclear power and about 10% of US clean energy. x.comÂ
Centrus Energy's fast-growing backlog looks increasingly large against its market value, though the opportunity depends on SMRs. Backlog rose from $1.2B to $4.5B in two years, about twice its $2.2B market cap despite the stock falling from $411 to $109; it extends through 2040. Backlog has grown roughly 20% a quarter, much of it from companies like Oklo and Constellation Energy. The market may not believe in SMRs. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Constellation Energy earns an A growth grade among large S&P utilities, and its massive nuclear fleet supplies the premium 24/7 product data centers need. It keeps converting output to long-term PPAs, recently signing another 920 MW, while substantial uncontracted nuclear capacity remains available. That leaves more unregulated merchant exposure than Vistra, whose larger retail book gives steadier earnings. x.com x.com x.comÂ
