LongGameEquity
Long-Term Investor, AI & Software
Centrus Energy's fast-growing backlog looks increasingly large against its market value, though the opportunity depends on SMRs. Backlog rose from $1.2B to $4.5B in two years, about twice its $2.2B market cap despite the stock falling from $411 to $109; it extends through 2040. Backlog has grown roughly 20% a quarter, much of it from companies like Oklo and Constellation Energy. The market may not believe in SMRs. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Centrus Energy keeps stacking up HALEU customers, now adding a multi-year supply contract with Antares Nuclear that includes prepayments to support domestic enrichment expansion. Recent deals include a $900 million DOE HALEU contract, up to $1.07 billion with options, supply agreements with prepayments from X-energy and Radiant, and an Oklo letter of intent supporting up to five Aurora powerhouses. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy's long-term contracts and growing nuclear-power demand underpin its appeal. It signed 15- to 20-year deals with Google, Amazon and Walmart in 2026, yet its forward P/E has fallen to about 20x from a massive 2025 premium. It looks like an even better bet today. x.comÂ
Centrus Energy has an effective war chest of $2.8 billion inside a $3.2 billion market cap: $1.9 billion of unrestricted cash plus a $900 million HALEU award. It is still the only US company that can enrich uranium into HALEU, faces zero domestic competition and carries a $3.9 billion backlog. x.comÂ
Centrus Energy's HALEU bottleneck trade is real but not ready yet, with regulatory headwinds still the big gate. Most leading advanced reactor designs, from Oklo, Kairos, TerraPower and X-energy, need HALEU, and with Russia out Centrus is the only Western company that can make it at scale. Q1 revenue of $76.7M beat, but the buildout squeezed margins; management raised full-year guidance to $450-500M and cited the Oak Ridge centrifuge ramp, a Palantir partnership and a $3.9B backlog. x.comÂ
Constellation Energy's baseline is now strong enough to support the equity story without immediate new hyperscaler deals; AI and contracting add upside. Its new framework guides 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11.00-12.00 and 20%+ base EPS growth through 2029, excluding buyback accretion, with a $5.0B buyback and $3.9B of growth capital. Shares fell because management announced no new data center deal after expecting one by this call, and the EPS midpoint was slightly below consensus. x.comÂ
Centrus Energy benefits from nuclear's role as the only carbon-free baseload source that can meet AI's power needs, as the only US-owned company licensed to enrich uranium at commercial scale. It raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450-500 million, holds a $3.9 billion backlog through 2040, and won a $900 million DOE task order for commercial-scale HALEU, the fuel next-generation reactors need but almost no one can make. Its Oak Ridge expansion is advancing with $560 million committed. x.comÂ
Nuclear stocks like Cameco, Centrus, BWX Technologies, Constellation, Vistra, Talen, Oklo and NuScale are exposed because pro-nuclear sentiment can reverse for a decade or two, and investors who started after Fukushima have only seen the pro phase. The US never built a central waste site, so spent fuel sits on-site in dry casks, at San Onofre barely 100 feet from the Pacific. An earthquake, corrosion or a disaster anywhere, under any design, could turn the public against nuclear again. x.com … Show more
Nuclear is shifting from plain electricity to AI infrastructure, and the winners will be those that can actually sell power. X-Energy is the realistic growth play, with Amazon-backed demand, TRISO-fueled reactors, recurring fuel sales and possible first cash flow in 2028-2030. Oklo is a venture-style bet on fast reactors and fuel recycling, binary on NRC approval. NuScale is the conservative light-water play, held back by costs. Cameco, Centrus and Energy Fuels round out the comparison. x.com … Show more
Centrus Energy is the only US-owned HALEU producer and the sole domestic fuel source for small modular reactors powering AI data centers. The sector is hated but the fundamentals are untouched, making it a patient accumulation play. Technically, it shows a compression setup, a green SuperTrend cloud and an approaching bullish weekly 20/50 EMA cross. x.comÂ
X-Energy's coming parabolic revenue growth makes its shares attractive. Its meltdown-proof TRISO fuel is going to be big for AI. Buying X-Energy now feels like buying Centrus Energy in 2022 or 2023 after its shares crashed below $20; Dogecoin's market cap is three times X-Energy's. X-Energy probably has not bottomed yet. x.com x.comÂ
Centrus is building the West's replacement HALEU supply, since none exists at commercial scale and the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act cut off the old source in August 2024. It produces HALEU in Piketon, Ohio, and DOE's $900M contract, up to $1.07B with options, funds 12 tonnes a year with new cascades around 2029. It has $474M of TTM revenue, 36x forward earnings and net cash, though the build burns money. The risk is SMRs slipping and Piketon scaling before binding orders. x.comÂ
