Derek Quick
Uranium/Nuclear & Value Stock Analyst, Trader, Coast Guard Veteran
X-Energy's coming parabolic revenue growth makes its shares attractive. Its meltdown-proof TRISO fuel is going to be big for AI. Buying X-Energy now feels like buying Centrus Energy in 2022 or 2023 after its shares crashed below $20; Dogecoin's market cap is three times X-Energy's. X-Energy probably has not bottomed yet. x.com x.comÂ
X-energy and other nuclear names should begin to catch a bid as AI market breadth broadens from semiconductors to CPUs to solar and now other sectors. x.comÂ
X-energy is a long-duration bet where milestones are landing on time and the balance sheet now has the cash to reach them. The NRC issued its first-ever environmental assessment with no significant impact for a commercial reactor at Dow's Seadrift project, targeting a construction permit in Q1 2027. TRISO-X won a license to make HALEU fuel, with TX-1 on track for 1H 2028. IPO proceeds lift liquidity to about $2B, debt-free. Its 11.5 GW pipeline is concentrated in Dow, Amazon and Centrica. x.comÂ
X-Energy is a pre-revenue nuclear startup, essentially a call option on the nuclear theme, and worth watching from the sidelines for now. It raised over $1 billion in its IPO and filed a roughly $1.59 billion shelf, but its Xe-100 small reactors are 5-10 years from construction, so more raises risk ongoing dilution and permitting delays are a major risk. Policy support, data center power demand and Amazon and utility partnerships are the upside; failure means burning through cash. x.comÂ
X-energy is set for a FOMO squeeze to $44. x.comÂ
Nuclear is shifting from plain electricity to AI infrastructure, and the winners will be those that can actually sell power. X-Energy is the realistic growth play, with Amazon-backed demand, TRISO-fueled reactors, recurring fuel sales and possible first cash flow in 2028-2030. Oklo is a venture-style bet on fast reactors and fuel recycling, binary on NRC approval. NuScale is the conservative light-water play, held back by costs. Cameco, Centrus and Energy Fuels round out the comparison. x.com … Show more
Centrus Energy's fast-growing backlog looks increasingly large against its market value, though the opportunity depends on SMRs. Backlog rose from $1.2B to $4.5B in two years, about twice its $2.2B market cap despite the stock falling from $411 to $109; it extends through 2040. Backlog has grown roughly 20% a quarter, much of it from companies like Oklo and Constellation Energy. The market may not believe in SMRs. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Uranium Energy is a steal as a debt-free US uranium producer, and it is the kind of company a hyperscaler could buy to lock in power. Uranium is the best 24/7 power there is, needing no sun or wind. The shares trade around $9 after being above $20 earlier this year. x.comÂ
Oklo and X-energy look poised for the biggest gains after compute, having both been selected for a $200 million Trump administration program to speed up nuclear power plants for data centers. Nuclear will take time, though, and their revenues remain far off. x.comÂ
Oklo and X-energy could surge after joining the Trump administration's bid to speed nuclear reactors for AI. The US Energy Department is set to host an AI-related event on Wednesday, where details of a $200 million effort could be unveiled. x.comÂ
Terrestrial Energy is the mispriced Gen IV nuclear play, valued at about $87 million per gigawatt of pipeline versus about $565 million for X-Energy. Its molten salt reactor uses standard LEU below 5% rather than HALEU, easing fuel sourcing, with partners including Westinghouse, Siemens, Texas A&M and Riot Platforms. It has $298 million of cash and no debt; a 3x gap implies about $17. First deployment is not until the early 2030s, an October lock-up expiry looms, and cash burn is rising. x.com … Show more
