Cole
Momentum Stock & Options Trading, Public Trading Journal
X-energy and other nuclear names should begin to catch a bid as AI market breadth broadens from semiconductors to CPUs to solar and now other sectors. x.comÂ
X-Energy's coming parabolic revenue growth makes its shares attractive. Its meltdown-proof TRISO fuel is going to be big for AI. Buying X-Energy now feels like buying Centrus Energy in 2022 or 2023 after its shares crashed below $20; Dogecoin's market cap is three times X-Energy's. X-Energy probably has not bottomed yet. x.com x.comÂ
X-Energy is a pre-revenue nuclear startup, essentially a call option on the nuclear theme, and worth watching from the sidelines for now. It raised over $1 billion in its IPO and filed a roughly $1.59 billion shelf, but its Xe-100 small reactors are 5-10 years from construction, so more raises risk ongoing dilution and permitting delays are a major risk. Policy support, data center power demand and Amazon and utility partnerships are the upside; failure means burning through cash. x.comÂ
X-energy looks a much better runner than Oklo if the market starts trading the power bottleneck, given its strong balance sheet and Amazon backlog. It had plumbed lows near $13, almost half its IPO price, before rebounding with other nuclear names. x.comÂ
X-energy is a long-duration bet where milestones are landing on time and the balance sheet now has the cash to reach them. The NRC issued its first-ever environmental assessment with no significant impact for a commercial reactor at Dow's Seadrift project, targeting a construction permit in Q1 2027. TRISO-X won a license to make HALEU fuel, with TX-1 on track for 1H 2028. IPO proceeds lift liquidity to about $2B, debt-free. Its 11.5 GW pipeline is concentrated in Dow, Amazon and Centrica. x.comÂ
Oklo and X-energy could surge after joining the Trump administration's bid to speed nuclear reactors for AI. The US Energy Department is set to host an AI-related event on Wednesday, where details of a $200 million effort could be unveiled. x.comÂ
Oklo and X-energy look poised for the biggest gains after compute, having both been selected for a $200 million Trump administration program to speed up nuclear power plants for data centers. Nuclear will take time, though, and their revenues remain far off. x.comÂ
Uranium is a conviction trade, so short-term price action should be ignored. Demand for new nuclear power keeps building: per @quakes99, Amazon signed a $3B, 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy that adds 190 MW of new nuclear generation at Calvert Cliffs in Maryland. x.comÂ
Nuclear is the always-on energy source that looks pricey but is far more competitive on true cost per delivered watt, making Oklo, NuScale, X-Energy, Denison Mines and BWX Technologies one of the main ways to play the energy transition, alongside solar and batteries. x.comÂ
Terrestrial Energy is overlooked next to Oklo, NuScale and X-energy and is primed to squeeze. About 8.2 million shares are short against a 28 million tradeable float, roughly 30% short interest, because it is lumped into nuclear baskets and shorted to death. Its enterprise value is only $574 million while it works through DoE SMR milestones like the other major nuclear names. It has no shelf and no ATM, so it cannot keep issuing stock, and it will go nuclear whenever people whisper "nuclear". … Show more