Gustavo Neffa
Partner & Director at Research for Traders, Economist & Professor
Ferrari's 41% drop from its high looks out of line with its fundamentals: net margin only slipped from 23% to 21%, and it is a beautiful company trading at a P/E barely above the market's. A fall this large should reflect fundamentals rather than technicals, beyond the broad market decline, so either the selloff is overdone or something is being missed. x.com x.com
Ferrari's buyers are rich people, and rich people never go through a recession. The stock just hit its highest level since November 2025. x.com
Ferrari is a compounder with a premium brand, elite margins, scarcity and pricing power, and its EPS is expected to nearly double by 2028. The chart has built a six-month Stage 1 base, reclaimed the 200-day moving average and is knocking on breakout levels. Per @TLAMB91, large dark pool prints and supportive options flow have shown up lately. x.com x.com
Ferrari is less attractive to own now because its Luce numbers look increasingly underwhelming and prices are already being cut. The company and brand remain appealing, but the money could work better elsewhere. x.com
Ferrari got cheaper while its moat got deeper, which could make it an excellent pick for a 10-year-plus horizon. Its multiple fell from 60x in 2020 to 30x even as EBITDA margin rose from 29% to 40%, ROE reached 42% and its quality score hit 98/100, the best in global autos. The derating reflects expected revenue growth of about 6% a year through 2028, half the historical pace, because management deliberately capped volume to protect scarcity, leaving only price increases to drive growth. x.com
Coca-Cola's safe-haven premium has gone too far. It trades at more than double Ferrari's price-to-free-cash-flow multiple while having the same EBITDA margins and nearly half the expected growth rate. x.com
Ferrari remains expensive because bulls ignored its capitalized R&D, overstating free cash flow. At the peak the stock traded near a 1% FCF yield, and dividends plus buybacks only ever covered about half the quoted FCF, leaving some €400M unexplained. Even at about 25x FCF it would be only cheap-ish when TransDigm or Moody's, growing 6-8% for years, trade at 25-30x, and Ferrari is still materially above that despite a 43% drawdown, its largest ever, per @Fiscal_ai. x.com x.com x.com
Ferrari's selloff over an unpopular new design is overblown because its value rests on brand and scarcity, not looks. It is an irreplaceable business. The Middle East, over a third of its business, should return once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, adding to demand from Korea, Taiwan, China and India, though Ferrari will still ship only about 16,000-17,000 cars this year by design. x.com
Hermès and Ferrari are the only luxury companies worth holding, as unique, concentrated brands in a sector that has mostly ridden momentum. Ferrari stands out most for its premium product, with only about 14,000 cars a year, its pricing, repeat customers and order book. x.com x.com
Ferrari is overvalued for such low growth. x.com
Swatch Group is cheap on the balance sheet but expensive on the income statement, which is why the stock has gone nowhere for fifteen years. Inventory, real estate and cash alone exceed its market cap, and gross margins near 80% show real brand pricing power. But high fixed costs from vertical integration and heavy reliance on one country cut net margin from 13% in 2015 to 0.25% in 2025. Hype launches like MoonSwatch and the AP Royal Pop, which crashed 72% on resale, do not move earnings. x.com … Show more
