Deep Sail Capital
Founder & CIO of Deep Sail Capital, Long/Short GARP, Quality/Growth/Micro-Caps
uniQure's risk/reward is attractive because $10-12 of cash per share plus the upside implies the market assigns a low chance of approval. Management communication was the core issue rather than a change to the endgame; the unmet need is huge and the company is likely closer to the finish line than the start. The prespecified cUHDRS base and bull case was missed, possibly because of attrition, but being negative here is fundamentally betting the drug doesn't work. x.comÂ
uniQure offers a much better risk-reward after today's news than before the November setback, as @LogicalThesis points out. As clarity on AMT-130's approval builds, it could return to or surpass its October level of about $70, though the market still has trust issues after what happened. If things turn negative again, the case is over. x.comÂ
uniQure's risk/reward is too high, as the stock has become a binary bet on regulatory and clinical outcomes. The earlier drop came because the FDA asked for a larger trial, a huge setback, yet the stock has since doubled as investors bet on success given very strong efficacy data. Future moves will hinge on regulatory and clinical catalysts, and the chart shows huge swings all the time. x.comÂ
ClearPoint Neuro has many irons in the fire beyond uniQure, one of its 60+ partners, which still has a decent probability of BLA acceptance in November. Neurona's MTLE drug and Parkinson's partners are enrolling, and gene and cell therapy delivered into the brain is not going to slow down. x.comÂ
uniQure's AMT-130 likely still gets approved and can be a reasonable commercial success. The open questions are insurance coverage and pricing, and whether Huntington's disease patients will pay given there is no other treatment. x.comÂ
A leadership change at the FDA could favor Hims & Hers, since Commissioner Marty Makary was known for targeting its compounded GLP-1 pill. Per CBS, President Trump has approved a plan to fire Makary. It is not yet official, which is why the stock hasn't moved sharply; once it is, a sharp move may follow. x.comÂ
ClearPoint Neuro would become a cash-flow machine if uniQure's AMT-130 reaches commercial launch, and after today's positive reversal it is a much better risk-reward than before the event, as @LogicalThesis points out. Commercial partners pay more for equipment and consumables than trial partners, and royalties flow straight to the bottom line. With more clarity on approval it could regain or pass its October 2025 peak near $30. Without an anchor commercial partner it is far less attractive. … Show more