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Jay Yoon

Founder & Portfolio Manager of Summit Ridge Capital Management

29 Jun, 04:39Latest

Micron's risk-reward for longs is unappealing because Chinese memory makers could crush the non-HBM profits that still make up most of its earnings. State-backed firms such as CXMT trail in HBM but can aggressively expand low-end capacity if Beijing wants, as China has done elsewhere. HBM growth is unlikely to offset that: memory nears 50% of rack bill of materials, and Micron locking in half its revenue for five years at capped prices suggests pricing has peaked, leaving growth to volume. x.com x.com

Hated Moats Investor

Contrarian Quality-Stock Research, 25 Years in Markets, GOOGL Since 2011

23 Jun

Micron's roughly $1.37 trillion valuation already prices a durable rise in through-cycle earnings that memory's history has never shown. A reverse DCF at 9% WACC and 2% growth implies about $95 billion of steady cash flow, versus a record $9.2 billion and a ten-year average near $1.9 billion. At a 30% FCFF margin that needs about $317 billion of revenue, over 8x fiscal 2025 sales. The HBM bull case is real, but fiscal 2023's swing to a -37% operating margin shows how fast pricing reverses. x.com

Herman Jin

Formerly in Asia FICC at Goldman Sachs, Macro & Semiconductor Investing

14 Oct

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SK hynix and other Korean memory makers' aggressive price hikes invite customers to optimize memory use, undermining the case for 90% margins despite a long-term shortage. Memory is the only layer raising cost per token. Elon Musk described Micron's future pricing as reasonable and other suppliers' as extortionate, warning that today's customers would not forget; exorbitant long-term contracts compound that risk. x.com x.com

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

19 Oct

Micron's HBM and server-memory scarcity is backed by customer commitments beyond its earlier sold-out 2026 capacity. Per management and sell-side reports, more than about 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are allocated or contracted, supply may not rebalance through 2028, and 2027 HBM prices have risen significantly. Strategic agreements extend through 2030; a later supply glut or faster Chinese competition could erode margins. x.com

Coinvo Trading

Full-Time Trader, Public Trade Commentary

14 Oct

Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.com

Deep Value Investing

Value Investor, Long-Term Compounding

15 Oct

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005930.KS

Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.com

Matt C

Cybersecurity Engineer, Bitcoin Background Since 2014

27 Oct

Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.com

Prepared Remarks

Equity Investor, Macro Commentary

7 Aug

Micron's upside is now capped while its downside remains, because its long-term agreements will be meaningless if the memory cycle turns. In hard times, even bona fide take-or-pay contracts get challenged through material adverse change clauses, so the agreements offer little protection. Memory's shareholder base is also turning over from fast money chasing pricing and revisions to growth-at-a-reasonable-price investors, who do not believe the earnings are sustainable. x.com x.com

Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan

Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels

13 Sep

Micron is too risky to own long term because memory is one of the most cyclical parts of the AI trade. Its margins are hard to forecast, so memory, like neoclouds, deserves a low multiple until it proves it can run a sustainable business through cycles, despite immense upside. Micron belongs in the too-hard pile: worth swing trading at opportune times, not holding long term or in real size. x.com x.com

Daniel Romero

Technology Equity Analyst, Semiconductors/Data Centers/Physical AI

28 Oct

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005930.KS

Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.com

Deep Value Investing

Value Investor, Long-Term Compounding

8 Oct

Micron's projections are set so high that even great years may not be enough to meet them. Samsung's Q3 results show the risk: revenue of $145.6B missed the $150.7B estimate, and operating profit of $80.2B missed $81.1B. x.com

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