Intuit will survive AI, but its products are among the most vulnerable to it, and AI should take a massive chunk of its business. It relied heavily on customers staying for convenience, and it has already admitted customer spending is tightening. Revenue growth has slowed to 10%, and the 17% staff layoff looks like an effort to offset lost future business. It may not be a terrible buy here, but it won't return near historic valuations, and better SaaS options exist. x.com 

Intuit's core TurboTax pricing is collapsing as AI turns tax filing into a commodity. Goldman estimates AI can process a standard return for about $0.12, against TurboTax's blended revenue of roughly $162 per return. Intuit sold confidence, and plain explanations are now free and instant; it said last quarter that it lost on price, then cut 17% of staff. Filing, compliance, audit support and trust still matter, and it has partnered with Anthropic, but the question is what it is worth afterward. … Show more

Intuit's dominant market positions, recurring revenue, high switching costs and exceptional cash generation make it a world-class compounder, and the market's AI fears may be offering it at a discount. x.com 

Intuit is a casualty of AI replacing SaaS, because TurboTax and QuickBooks exist to navigate complexity that AI can now handle in a conversation. When Claude or ChatGPT can do taxes and manage books, the $180 annual subscription loses its reason to exist. The stock is down 50% over the past year and Intuit is laying off 17% of its workforce, following Duolingo, Chegg and Dropbox. x.com 

Intuit is likely to be slightly disrupted by Claude and other AI tools that prepare and file taxes, and is not a great contrarian buy-the-dip opportunity. Cheaper or even free open-source QuickBooks rivals that startups can spin up by vibe coding with Claude add possible disruption from multiple fronts. An accountant replying argues QuickBooks with AI features has pricing power. Disruption is real but has a few winners, such as Reddit and Snap, likely more profitable from AI opex cuts. x.com  … Show more

HubSpot and Intuit have a meaningful chance to be AI winners even as the market destroys SMB software, because selling to small businesses is life on hard mode, as @travisk put it, which makes it moaty. The math is so hard that competition is thin and survivors gain share in downturns; they have aggregated customers at scale; AI agents favor full-platform adoption and clean data; and AI may spur many new small businesses. They still add customers, but the window is closing; they must accelerate. … Show more

Intuit risks becoming the example of AI commoditizing software, as AI and agents increasingly answer tax and bookkeeping questions instantly, cheaply or for free, removing the need for a costly middle layer. Its large paying base means AI probably won't crush it immediately, but pricing power and users could get squeezed. Its lofty multiples are likely over; it won't go to zero and could still be decent, but it is down 54% this year in a nasty stage-4 downtrend below its 200-day average. x.com  … Show more

Intuit's TurboTax is cooked because AI makes doing taxes easier for everyone, eroding its pricing power. Even after the drop to 20x GAAP earnings, the stock holds no appeal. x.com  x.com 

Intuit is well placed for a software rally, with EPS likely to accelerate and its P/E multiple to recover. Starting a business has never been easier, and those businesses need accounting software. They won't vibe code their own, since it is a small cost that must be tax compliant and linked to governments for automatic filing, and vibe-coded rivals risk security breaches. Businesses are also subscribing to AI features inside accounting software, such as automatic cost classification. x.com 

Alphabet's search business faces disruption as AI alternatives start to replace traditional searches, even though the shift has yet to hurt revenue. Search still grew 12%, as predicted, but this may be its last double-digit result. Early Uber use in San Francisco likewise preceded taxis losing share. Alphabet's impressive cloud growth accounts for only a quarter of revenue. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com