Roundhill Investments
ETF Provider
The Roundhill Memory ETF gives the precise exposure to memory companies that the market needed. In three months it did what took the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF, long one of the few accessible routes to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, over 25 years. The actively managed fund holds companies with at least half their revenue or profit from memory products such as HBM, DRAM and NAND. x.com x.comÂ
Memory remains structurally scarce because SK hynix says conventional DRAM and HBM are practically sold out through 2029, while customers request roughly twice the HBM volume it can produce. Long-term agreements cover more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity, and the company expects the supply-demand imbalance to persist through 2030. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix's five-year agreements with 14 major customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, giving its memory earnings unusually long visibility. DRAM prices rose 28% and NAND 25% in the quarter, while operating profit reached 62.8 billion against 58.5 billion expected; Q4 DRAM shipments are guided up 25% from Q3. Those commitments support the view that demand is not peaking yet. Overweight, $400 target. x.comÂ
High-bandwidth memory supply may not keep pace with AI demand, supporting the memory makers. Anthropic's S-1 says SK hynix, Samsung and Micron are expanding capacity, but warns that large buyers or competitors could reserve much of the available output. x.comÂ
Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more
Terafab's distant start and difficulty making memory at competitive yields are incremental positives for DRAM makers. Elon Musk said its first SRAM chip is slated for 2H28 volume production; that suggests logic first, not DRAM. DRAM names remain among the most disconnected AI bets: valuations imply a sharp 2027-28 cyclical decline despite growth and margins that should stay above prior peaks if AI demand holds. Ramping capacity before demand arrives risks oversupply. x.comÂ
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix's stronger pricing and contracted demand support the still-favored memory duration trade. DRAM and HBM capacity is sold out through 2029, and a supply-demand imbalance is expected through 2030. More than half of 2027-28 capacity is under long-term agreements, with agreed 2027 HBM prices significantly higher year on year. Guangfa HK expects fund flows and bearish sentiment to improve after earnings. x.comÂ
Memory undersupply should persist through 2031 on surging AI demand for HBM, DDR5 and enterprise SSDs, per Citi, which is bullish for Micron, SK hynix, Sandisk and memory makers broadly. Citi projects HBM bit demand rising 62% in 2027 and 69% in 2028, with DRAM demand outpacing supply in both years. NAND should also stay undersupplied as manufacturers prioritize new capacity for DRAM and HBM. x.comÂ
SK hynix's strong pricing and secured capacity could push memory stocks higher. Per Wall St Engine, its Q3 DRAM ASP rose by a high-20s percentage quarter over quarter, while long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027-28 capacity. Those figures support the memory upcycle. x.comÂ
3D-stacked DRAM could constrain bit output even more than today's HBM, preventing memory oversupply beyond 2030. HBM demand already diverts capacity from conventional DRAM; logic-integrated stacks could add pressure if they scale around 2029-30. That comparison depends on the architecture being understood correctly, and memory makers have not settled the DRAM process nodes. x.comÂ