The photonics-as-AI-bottleneck claim has faded, leaving Lumentum facing more pain before the theme recovers. A large December options node sits at $600; the stock bot targets downside at $650 and $595, with $581 a possible liquidity sweep where smart money would buy instead of rushing in at $650 or $630. Most photonics companies will likely never come back. x.com 

Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com  x.com 

Photonics stocks remain attractive as AI optical-component demand exceeds supply: Lumentum's CEO says the company cannot meet 70% of demand for some products through 2027 or 30% for others through 2028, with some components sold out into early 2029. The cited basket is LITE, MRVL, AAOI, COHR, SIVE and AEHR. x.com 

Optical component stocks such as Lumentum, Coherent, Applied Optoelectronics and AXT look early in an unwind, as a wave of new photonics paid newsletters signals a crowded narrative. Price pays; narratives do not. x.com 

Photonics stocks such as Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics look vulnerable because the trade is far too crowded. Today's reversal in the space could be the start of the next leg down. x.com 

Rising 1.6T switching demand favors optical suppliers, though their execution risks vary. Bank of America says the market could grow ~101% annually through 2030. Marvell's leading DSPs and Lumentum's supply-short 200G EML lasers are lowest risk; Applied Optoelectronics' capacity expansion and Fabrinet's customer concentration make them medium risk. Aeluma remains pre-commercial, while Lightwave Logic's polymer modulators are a high-risk moonshot despite its TSM partnership. x.com 

Photonics stocks such as Coherent, Lumentum, Corning, Applied Optoelectronics and Ciena are priced on unknown future demand rather than current results. Lumentum's revenue has been flat, yet projections for the year ending June 2029 call for $12.8 billion, over 4x this year's $2.96 billion. That is great if true, but a lot can happen before then, especially any disruption to the data-center buildout boom. x.com 

Silicon photonics and co-packaged optics are clearly what's next, and the market is rewarding accelerating revenue growth. Some timelines may slip and a 20% pullback is possible, but holding legitimate parts of the value chain for three years should push these stocks to laughable valuations. x.com 

Photonics suppliers ride the same curves Marvell just laid out through 2030. Marvell targets $70-90B of fiscal 2031 revenue from $8.2B last year, with a TAM 4x its last investor day and interconnect the biggest segment at about $37.5B. Supply is tight: Lumentum's CEO says it can meet only 30% of customer demand next year, and Coherent is booked through 2027. @AsymmetricBets_ applied Marvell's model to Lumentum, Coherent, Applied Optoelectronics, Ciena, Tower Semiconductor and Astera Labs. x.com 

Lumentum and Coherent are investments driven by product iteration, while AXT is a bottleneck trade best treated as speculation. Shortage-driven price hikes on the same parts define a cyclical stock, prices quickly discount shortage expectations, and once profits truly climb it is time to exit. Bottlenecks also push customers to design around them and invite new entrants. Investable companies keep lifting margins through yield gains and new products, driving token deflation while growing revenue. … Show more