SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.com 

SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com 

SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com 

SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX faces a series of large share unlocks that could add selling supply. Another 911 million shares become eligible for sale tomorrow, followed by 328 million on Oct. 24, 319 million on Oct. 26, 1.3 billion in early November and 797 million in December; Elon's 6.4 billion shares become eligible in June 2027. x.com 

SpaceX shares look tempting as the lockup partially ends, with Finviz showing almost a 30% short float. There is no sign of a rush to sell at these prices: many chased the stock at $200, and very few want it in the low $100s. x.com 

SpaceX shares face a slow grind of unlock supply through December rather than one dump: August 6 is only the first of eight unlocks, and eligibility to sell jumps to 93% at Q3 earnings. Being eligible to sell differs from selling, since many holders bought years before the stock traded and will sell only if forced. The real test is whether demand absorbs October and Q3 earnings without cracking, so staying out until that stretch plays out. x.com 

SpaceX shares are worth hedging while everyone is hyped, with roughly $400B of unlocks still coming and the Anthropic IPO ahead. Per the FT, via @DeItaone, SpaceX is looking to raise $40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips. x.com 

SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's price is propped up by a tiny float that will flood with sellers through December 2026. Only about 5% of shares trade now; up to 20% of locked shares unlock around August 11, then 7% every 15 days through October, 28% around November 9 and the rest by December 9, about 20x today's float. Early investors will likely sell ahead of each other, dumping on retail, though the company itself should be extremely valuable long term. Musk's lockup runs to mid-2027. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more