NoName
Trader Since 2018, Bitcoin, Stocks, DeFi & Macro
SpaceX shares face a slow grind of unlock supply through December rather than one dump: August 6 is only the first of eight unlocks, and eligibility to sell jumps to 93% at Q3 earnings. Being eligible to sell differs from selling, since many holders bought years before the stock traded and will sell only if forced. The real test is whether demand absorbs October and Q3 earnings without cracking, so staying out until that stretch plays out. x.com
SpaceX's share unlocks may prove far less bearish than feared, because the biggest insider position stays locked while unlocked supply hits the market. The market can price in fear months before the supply matters, and demand growing while insiders stay put would blunt the overhang. Still, SpaceX is following Palantir's post-IPO script of hype, crash and then months of boring accumulation, with $80-$90 the zone worth watching. x.com
SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX faces a series of large share unlocks that could add selling supply. Another 911 million shares become eligible for sale tomorrow, followed by 328 million on Oct. 24, 319 million on Oct. 26, 1.3 billion in early November and 797 million in December; Elon's 6.4 billion shares become eligible in June 2027. x.com
SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com
SpaceX's unlock supply takes 2-3 months to absorb, setting up a December accumulation bottom. About 320M shares unlock Oct 24, up to 1.3B more after Q3 earnings, and a final tranche Dec 8. The float, not the business, is the problem: Q2 revenue grew 92% and Starlink has 12M subscribers. The bottom zone is $80-$90; $120-$140 bounces are traps. A $140 reclaim confirms a turn toward $300-$320 by April 2027; a daily close above $180 invalidates the setup. x.com
SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com x.com
SpaceX's stock run rests on a scarcity that is really a countdown, since it listed only 4.9% of itself. Unlocks begin on August 8 and recur roughly every two weeks; by day 366, Musk's 46.1% becomes eligible and the free float jumps from about 51% to 97% in a single day. Holders watching their net worth swing 10% in hours, some with a decade of income at stake, will face strong pressure to sell. Recently almost half the public float changed hands in a single day. x.com
SpaceX shares face more selling pressure because shareholder unlocks haven't even happened yet. Insiders have waited 10–20 years to exit. Facebook's 2012 IPO is the parallel: it opened at $38, fell to $18 and stayed underwater for over a year, recovering only after lockups ended and insiders exited. With only 5% of SpaceX stock available to trade, 30% short interest is almost meaningless. x.com x.com
SpaceX's feared lockup selling never came, removing the main reason to wait until December to buy. The first lockup expiry passed without the immense selling many expected, and it rarely pays to bet against Elon Musk. x.com
SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.com
