Thierry from arvy
CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing
SpaceX's stock run rests on a scarcity that is really a countdown, since it listed only 4.9% of itself. Unlocks begin on August 8 and recur roughly every two weeks; by day 366, Musk's 46.1% becomes eligible and the free float jumps from about 51% to 97% in a single day. Holders watching their net worth swing 10% in hours, some with a decade of income at stake, will face strong pressure to sell. Recently almost half the public float changed hands in a single day. x.comÂ
SpaceX IPO buyers are the exit liquidity, because the seller picks the timing and holds the information. Per 45 years of Apollo data, the average IPO underperforms the market over its first three years, and recent classes trailed by 68% to 88%; Bumble, Oatly and Rivian fell 80-95% from IPO prices. SpaceX just raised the largest IPO in history, with OpenAI and Anthropic queuing for autumn. If the next decade is as bright as the roadshow says, why are insiders selling now? x.comÂ
SpaceX faces a series of large share unlocks that could add selling supply. Another 911 million shares become eligible for sale tomorrow, followed by 328 million on Oct. 24, 319 million on Oct. 26, 1.3 billion in early November and 797 million in December; Elon's 6.4 billion shares become eligible in June 2027. x.comÂ
SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.comÂ
SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.comÂ
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.comÂ
SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's unlock supply takes 2-3 months to absorb, setting up a December accumulation bottom. About 320M shares unlock Oct 24, up to 1.3B more after Q3 earnings, and a final tranche Dec 8. The float, not the business, is the problem: Q2 revenue grew 92% and Starlink has 12M subscribers. The bottom zone is $80-$90; $120-$140 bounces are traps. A $140 reclaim confirms a turn toward $300-$320 by April 2027; a daily close above $180 invalidates the setup. x.comÂ
SpaceX faces a long overhang of unlocked shares. The stock fell back to its IPO price as 319 million shares held by early employees and investors became tradable, one step in a slow release that frees roughly 88% of its 13 billion shares by 2027. SpaceX lost over $100 billion in market cap that day, per @UnfilterFinance. x.comÂ
SpaceX insiders showed strong confidence by not dumping when $100B of shares became eligible to sell, and the stock rose instead. Early holders could have sold with the stock still 50% below its highs but did not; Musk's 42% stake stays locked until 2027 and shares unlock in stages. Index funds also need to buy more as SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 weight rises from about 1% to over 3.5%. x.comÂ
SpaceX is unlikely to sustain a rally or find a bottom until the share unlock is complete and shares stop flooding the market. Its first-ever public report this week should not move the stock much. x.comÂ
