Master of Crypto
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SpaceX insiders showed strong confidence by not dumping when $100B of shares became eligible to sell, and the stock rose instead. Early holders could have sold with the stock still 50% below its highs but did not; Musk's 42% stake stays locked until 2027 and shares unlock in stages. Index funds also need to buy more as SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 weight rises from about 1% to over 3.5%. x.com
SpaceX stock is under pressure because investors want its surging AI spending to turn into profits, and strong results alone aren't enough. Revenue was $7.8B versus $6.81B expected, up 92% year over year, and Starlink reached 12 million subscribers, yet the stock fell 13% as AI spending jumped to $18.4B. It now trades around $111, below its $135 IPO price, as 911.5 million shares worth over $100B become available to sell today. x.com
SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com
SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com x.com
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com
SpaceX's strong earnings give its bullish setup fresh fundamental support. Revenue of $14.58 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $8.81 billion and operating income of $2.79 billion beat expectations, as did connectivity and space revenue; 35 launches and mass to orbit fell short. The shares are also pushing through a cup-and-handle breakout. x.com x.com
SpaceX's 912 million-share unlock was a supply event rather than a verdict on the business, and demand has absorbed it. AI segment revenue grew 213% sequentially and adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1.15B from a $609M loss, showing Wall Street pays the beneficiaries of AI capex. The same float expansion should raise SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 weight at the September rebalance, so with insider selling behind it, passive buying is still to come. x.com
SpaceX faces a series of large share unlocks that could add selling supply. Another 911 million shares become eligible for sale tomorrow, followed by 328 million on Oct. 24, 319 million on Oct. 26, 1.3 billion in early November and 797 million in December; Elon's 6.4 billion shares become eligible in June 2027. x.com
SpaceX shares look tempting as the lockup partially ends, with Finviz showing almost a 30% short float. There is no sign of a rush to sell at these prices: many chased the stock at $200, and very few want it in the low $100s. x.com
SpaceX stock should keep rising over the long term because its circulating valuation is much smaller than the $2.3 trillion headline. Elon Musk owns roughly 42%, which is effectively out of circulation. For crypto traders it works like a bundled meme that keeps going up. Per The Kobeissi Letter, the stock extended gains to over 10% on its second day of trading. x.com
SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.com
SpaceX shorts are crowded into a stock that big institutions are set to buy. Real-time short interest is 289.1M shares, or 45% of the 638.9M share float, up from 35%. Fidelity, Baron, Vanguard, Invesco, BlackRock and Capital Group know the August 10 lockup expiry is coming and want to gross up their positions; Fidelity will not stay at 1.66%. The first several quarters of a newly listed company are also usually heavily sandbagged. x.com x.com x.com
