Monis
Equities Trader, Oversold Reversals & Earnings Plays
TransMedics capital is better deployed elsewhere for now, with no near-term catalyst and weak price action. A post the author replies to notes that FY26 guidance includes revenue from heart trials, so without starting those trials soon the company can't meet it, and the market is arguably pricing in a miss. A re-evaluation would come once price action improves. x.com x.com
The valuation gap between Strata Critical Medical and TransMedics should close as Strata scales profitably while TransMedics burns cash. Strata's margins improve with scale, and its kidney logistics market is largely untapped, so new competitors would face its first-mover advantage. TransMedics has the stronger technical moat and may build superior warm-perfusion kidney devices, but trials are a science project until they deliver profits. Both could succeed, and might even cooperate. x.com x.com … Show more
TransMedics now looks weak, and weak names are not worth touching regardless of how cheap they look. The market is selling on falling operating margins; rising costs come from R&D and clinical trials, which is healthy, but there is more to it than margins. TransMedics is not passing fuel costs fully to customers, covering only part with a flat fee, and it is now offering cold-storage transplants, shifting from running both trial arms itself to offering the service. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
TransMedics' capital allocation adds risk, turning the stock into a show-me story despite results that mathlonning's recap calls solid. Its non-core charter business in Europe brings incrementally more execution risk and margin dilution, and it is questionable whether the company keeps pricing power as oil drops. Spending $12m on consultants is not a great look either. x.com
