TransMedics now looks weak, and weak names are not worth touching regardless of how cheap they look. The market is selling on falling operating margins; rising costs come from R&D and clinical trials, which is healthy, but there is more to it than margins. TransMedics is not passing fuel costs fully to customers, covering only part with a flat fee, and it is now offering cold-storage transplants, shifting from running both trial arms itself to offering the service. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

TransMedics' investment case is broken because operating margins are tracking near 11% instead of the expected path above 21%, and management is signaling further near-term pressure as investment continues. That gap is too large to stay invested. x.com 

TransMedics' long-term story stands despite a roughly 60% stock drop, because its organ transplant model is hard to replicate. It sells the machines and also handles retrieval and transport with its own aviation fleet and clinical teams. Margins are compressed by deliberate heavy investment, alongside regulatory issues and a lingering short report. About three-quarters of the TAM remains in the US, Europe is opening through Italy and PAD Aviation, and kidney transplants could double the TAM. … Show more

TransMedics' latest CFO change is another red flag for a sketchy company. CEO Waleed Hassanein is hard to work with and hires yes-men who aren't any good, which helps explain the revolving door in the CFO role. x.com  x.com  x.com 

TransMedics' best trade is likely over: in biotech, by the time competition starts being discussed, most of the gain has been made. Another investor notes its technology is great but very expensive, with many working to replace it. x.com 

TransMedics' long-term case is not threatened by high oil prices or Chinese regeneration drugs. It partly passed logistics costs on to hospitals last quarter, and the regeneration therapies @chillthehate cites look like a risk perhaps a decade out. @Stavanger68's FY29 assumptions of about $1.67B revenue and $9.5 EPS are aggressive but broadly aligned. Kidney could drive FY28-29 growth, though med-device launches usually take years to gain traction. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

TransMedics capital is better deployed elsewhere for now, with no near-term catalyst and weak price action. A post the author replies to notes that FY26 guidance includes revenue from heart trials, so without starting those trials soon the company can't meet it, and the market is arguably pricing in a miss. A re-evaluation would come once price action improves. x.com  x.com 

TransMedics is cheap here, with solid flight activity and margin compression set to turn around, leaving little to worry about for longs. x.com 

TransMedics still looks undervalued even at $94 after a strong Q2 earnings report, which puts it back on the buy list. The company has quietly been crushing it. x.com 

TransMedics is undervalued and could reach about $400 a share by 2032 as Europe and kidneys add new revenue. Its CEO says Europe is about half the global transplant opportunity, yet generates only about $20M today, and he forecasts 30,000 transplants and $2B of revenue by 2032, an 18% annual growth rate. Revenue from kidneys and Europe starts in the second half of 2027. At 40% EBITDA margins that is $800M of EBITDA, and 20x gives about $400. A director and the CEO have bought shares. x.com