Moderna looks like a risky hold over the weekend after a rough week and a potential secondary-offering overhang. x.comÂ
Deep Sail Capital
Founder & CIO of Deep Sail Capital, Long/Short GARP, Quality/Growth/Micro-Caps
Moderna is a stock to bet against. x.comÂ
Moderna's data catalyst is done, and it won't get an early stop in RCC. That makes it a good short here, with the story over until at least next summer. x.comÂ
Moderna could get explosive above $200 as anyone who shorted last week's valuation downgrade has to cover. The shakeout on that downgrade was a killer opportunity, and the stock is now back over $200. x.comÂ
Moderna remains unattractive despite forced Nasdaq-100 index buying: quarterly revenue is $145M against a $782M loss, while shares trade around $200. Citi rates it Sell with an $80 target. x.comÂ
Moderna looks slightly vulnerable after tripling in two weeks without follow-up news. A wedge pattern is forming with lower highs. If it holds $140, buyers could step in and drive another bounce back to $150+. x.comÂ
Moderna looks like a logical play on plague-outbreak concerns, though this is outside areas of expertise. A Russian lab worker's sudden death has raised fears of a plague crisis, per Zero Hedge, with the Trump team monitoring the outbreak, and the stock is acting well. x.comÂ
Moderna is likely to drop a massive stock offering on the buyers piling in. It has only about $5 billion and is losing money every quarter, so raising as much as possible, perhaps $15-20 billion, would make sense while demand is plentiful. @A_May_MD doubts it could raise more than about $6 billion. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Moderna has almost 40% downside to its average analyst price target of $119.56, which makes the sudden rush to buy it hard to explain. x.comÂ
Moderna could rise further with strong call flow showing, but it is getting close to a top expected in late October or early November; take profits on the way up. x.comÂ
Moderna's customer options positioning was not bullish, and the stock subsequently flushed 20%. WizOfOps described the top 10 trades as only modestly bearish, with no solid consensus among the customers dominating the flow. x.comÂ