jbulltard
Options Trader, Market Trend Modeling with Custom Data
Moderna is likely to drop a massive stock offering on the buyers piling in. It has only about $5 billion and is losing money every quarter, so raising as much as possible, perhaps $15-20 billion, would make sense while demand is plentiful. @A_May_MD doubts it could raise more than about $6 billion. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Moderna is a stock to bet against. x.comÂ
Moderna generates one-tenth of Bristol Myers Squibb's revenue, making their nearly equal valuations hard to justify. x.comÂ
Moderna is worth roughly $190-215 a share on a probability-weighted outcome tree, above the $157 price after its melanoma vaccine readout. Failure implies $75-85, melanoma-only $125-160, positive Phase 3 lung data $250-400, and broad cancer vaccination far more. The market is more skeptical on lung, and that readout decides the trade. With about 50M shares short, a squeeze could hit $400 before a return to a $120-190 range. Most outcomes sit at or below the price, so defined risk is warranted. … Show more
Moderna's cash burn and persistent operating losses make profitable commercialization the central constraint despite promising melanoma results. Its revenue remains too small and uneven to cover development costs, while rising diluted shares weaken financial resilience. x.comÂ
Moderna remains unattractive despite forced Nasdaq-100 index buying: quarterly revenue is $145M against a $782M loss, while shares trade around $200. Citi rates it Sell with an $80 target. x.comÂ
Moderna could get explosive above $200 as anyone who shorted last week's valuation downgrade has to cover. The shakeout on that downgrade was a killer opportunity, and the stock is now back over $200. x.comÂ
Moderna looks like a risky hold over the weekend after a rough week and a potential secondary-offering overhang. x.comÂ
Moderna's approaching October 24 data release at a Madrid conference makes some pre-event profit-taking likely. After the release, the stock could be $400, $200 or $40; the outcome is unknown. x.comÂ
Moderna looks likely to stay relatively stable above its gap-up price into next year, as big buyers return. A $6M sale of March 2027 $110 puts bets on exactly that, which seems logical. Yesterday's $30B was the second-largest dollar buy volume ever for the stock, after buy volumes had already re-emerged; January's buying, the largest since Q2 2024, came when the stock was above $100, versus about $50 now. x.com x.comÂ
Moderna looks expensive even under a bullish scenario. A base model values Covid, flu and RSV at $10B, oncology at $15B and the platform at $5B: a $30B market cap, or $75 a share versus $135, about 45% downside. Even $10B of oncology sales by 2035, one of the best pharma launches ever, at 8x sales and a 10% discount rate gives about $120. The CMV trial failed, norovirus is at risk, rivals are developing mRNA flu vaccines, and BofA's raised $170 target looks unjustified. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
