Jay Yoon
Founder & Portfolio Manager of Summit Ridge Capital Management
Unprecedented interest in Mistras Group's go-shop raises the odds of a significantly higher bid. Its proxy reports 38 NDAs, nearly 6x the average for comparable pure go-shops and 8x the all-go-shop average, more than any in a separate 132-deal study. HIG was the only party engaged in the sale process before signing; an earlier strategic discussion fell through. A topping bid approaching $30 has a good chance: the business is likely worth $40+ and fits strategics including SGS and Element. x.com x.com
ADT's go-shop suggests it was not widely shopped before the $10 cash take-private, leaving a speculative chance of an overbid. The 30-day window ends November 28 and may extend 10 days for qualified bidders; its low-growth but entrenched, stable security business trades at 5.5 times EBITDA and might interest Google or Amazon. December $10 calls are lottery-like and usually expire worthless; the merger proxy has yet to disclose the sale process. x.com
Gamma Communications has received a takeover bid, another case of a UK small cap undervalued by public markets being taken by private buyers. x.com