Anp🅰️nman
AST SpaceMobile Research
ADT's go-shop suggests it was not widely shopped before the $10 cash take-private, leaving a speculative chance of an overbid. The 30-day window ends November 28 and may extend 10 days for qualified bidders; its low-growth but entrenched, stable security business trades at 5.5 times EBITDA and might interest Google or Amazon. December $10 calls are lottery-like and usually expire worthless; the merger proxy has yet to disclose the sale process. x.com
Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
No bids reported in Mistras Group's definitive proxy leave its go-shop with a poor prospect of a topping offer before tonight's midnight deadline. Despite the 38 NDAs in the preliminary proxy, a higher bid now looks doubtful. x.com x.com
Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com x.com … Show more
Aurora Cannabis merger-arbitrage is harder now because the initial bid-bump opportunity has passed. The shares still trade surprisingly tight in this market; if another bidder comes over the top, the event opportunity opens again. x.com x.com
Wall Street still values Alphabet like software while its cash flow no longer looks like it. Alphabet posted -$5.855B of free cash flow on $44.9B of quarterly capex, and its contracted future spending hit $811B, up from about $500B in March, the real reason for Thursday's AI selloff. x.com x.com
