Alphabet looks even more attractive after a departing Google DeepMind employee said his team was building a new generation of chips to make AI much faster and cheaper, and that he quit because AI is already progressing too fast. x.comÂ
Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
Alphabet's AI chips may gain a major customer. The Information reports OpenAI plans to buy Google's chips, though financial terms and other purchase details are not known. x.comÂ
Alphabet's ownership of the whole AI stack, from chips to cloud to distribution, gives it a structural cost advantage rivals can't easily copy. It alone designs its own TPUs, runs a global cloud and owns Search, Android, YouTube and Workspace, so aggressive inference pricing is a strategic weapon. As inference overtakes training, case studies show moving workloads from GPUs to TPUs can cut operating costs by over 50%. Microsoft and Amazon are building custom chips, but Alphabet is years ahead. … Show more
Google's search is becoming less profitable as AI agents disrupt its core business. Even perfect execution could make the transition painful, and Google is famously poor at new products. Its conduct over the past decade also raises stronger ethical objections than Meta's. Despite strong fundamentals, explosive cloud growth, no real risk and substantial growth ahead, Alphabet is unattractive relative to most other major AI companies. x.comÂ
Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com x.com … Show more
Alphabet's search monopoly faces a different competitive game as agent companies build their own search tools. Google Cloud grew 103%, but that was not enough to offset disappointing ads growth. Its only path is to accelerate AI training and keep spending on capex. Search will never be the same, and the risk-reward has changed, though Alphabet remains an optimistic prospect. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's search business will inevitably be cannibalized by AI, and search is its core advertising revenue driver. Google can pivot, but Meta will always have social networks people depend on to feel connected, making Meta the easier choice. x.comÂ
Alphabet's lagging AI lab undermines the case for owning it for ANT exposure. The semiconductor-business framing does not make up for that lag, and hyperscalers are no longer needed for this exposure. x.comÂ
Alphabet's AI buildout is hurting near-term operating profit as capex becomes depreciation. Operating income missed by about 6% and margin fell to about 32% from 34%, while much of the roughly 30% EPS miss came from gains and losses on investments, not Search, YouTube or Cloud. AI remains bullish, but the spending is not good for Google in the short term; the $195-205bn 2026 capex range is unchanged and 2027 capex is expected to rise significantly. Alphabet remains Overweight with a $425 target. … Show more
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet is the most complete vehicle for betting on AI, and it is undervalued. x.comÂ