Simplifying Stocks, CPA
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Samsung Electronics' extraordinary profitability despite an FX hit and rising DRAM prices undermine the case for a memory-price crash. It is the world's most profitable company. Wall St Engine's Q3 summary reports $80.4B in operating profit, up 783% year over year, DRAM selling prices up about 20% quarter over quarter, and Samsung's expectation that memory supply stays tight into 2028. x.com
Samsung Electronics' surging profits show how the AI memory shortage is paying suppliers. Quarterly operating profit reached ₩107tn, nearly nine times a year ago, while sales more than doubled to ₩195.3tn. Alongside SK hynix's results and Microsoft's willingness to pay more for memory, the memory supercycle looks real. x.com
Samsung Electronics faces downside risk because its parabolic run has made market expectations unrealistic, so one mistake could release gravity. Wall Street Engine's Q3 highlights showed revenue, operating profit and net profit below estimates despite triple-digit year-over-year growth. x.com
Samsung's preliminary Q3 points to the most profitable GAAP quarter ever, yet the stock trades at about 3.5x 2027 EPS. Preliminary Q3 revenue is about $145 billion with operating profit near $80 billion. If revenue grows 8% and net income 12% quarter over quarter for 5+ quarters as expected, Q3 2027 net income could top $105-110 billion. Samsung could earn its whole market cap in net income from 2026 to 2030, and heavy buybacks could lift EPS growth to a 40-50% CAGR. Final numbers are still due. … Show more
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix can invest heavily and still generate free cash flow that makes memory stocks look strikingly cheap. In 2027, they will spend $150B combined on capex yet generate $500-600B of free cash flow, against just $1.8T of combined enterprise value, or less than 3.5x 2027 FCF. Long memory. x.com
Samsung's record quarter looks closer to a peak than a new base: conventional DRAM shipments are flat year on year, while higher prices per bit drove profits despite a revenue miss. Its phone unit is cutting output because memory costs too much, and AI chip designers are seeking to use less HBM. Buyers' response threatens the price-led margin surge. The October 29 divisional earnings breakdown may show whether memory profit grew much faster than group profit. x.com
Samsung trades at a steep discount for a company set to stay among the world's most profitable for the next year, backed by multi-year contracts. It and Micron each carry market caps around a quarter of Nvidia's, and companies that profitable for a full year can't keep trading at such a discount. x.com
The valuation gap favors SK hynix and Samsung over Corning, Seagate and Western Digital. Companies trading at 20x are still called cheap while the memory makers trade at 2x; Corning is not cheap on a $4 run rate even with growth, and neither are Seagate or Western Digital. The gap should narrow as memory rises while HDD stalls. x.com x.com
Samsung's 7.7% drop on the greatest quarterly profit in tech history shows the AI trade has run out of buyers at these levels. Profit was ₩89.4 trillion ($58.4 billion), up 1,810%, yet the stock is down 23.74% from its peak in just 15 days. The numbers had been anticipated for months, so once they confirmed expectations nobody was left to buy, the mark of a fully priced market. x.com
SK hynix's record earnings and five-year volume and spec agreements make its valuation look too low. Quarterly revenue reached KRW104.62T, up 32%, and operating profit hit $63B against a $785B market cap, below AMD's and less than half Tesla's. Its planned KRW100T (~$75B) shareholder return would be one of the world's largest, signaling conviction and unusual demand visibility. AI-inference 3D DRAM is coming by 2030; a reasonable valuation is all that is sought. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more