Nike is not deep value: it still trades at about 26 times, against roughly 9.4 times for Lululemon, and the consumer is not looking healthy heading into the second half of 2026. x.com 

Nike looks overvalued at about 25.6x forward earnings for a business guiding to high-single-digit revenue declines. At $32 on $1.25 of EPS, per the lowered guidance @TrendSpider reports, plus a 5% dividend, tobacco stocks like Altria should triple if that is the going rate for shrinking sales. Nike does not merit a tobacco multiple: it angered its distributors, faces more premium rivals and new entrants, has less loyal customers, is no government-mandated duopoly and pays for costly marketing. … Show more

Lululemon risks following Nike's path of margin collapse from peak valuation. Lululemon peaked at 14x EV/sales and 82x forward earnings in 2020, while Nike's EBITDA margin has collapsed from 18% in 2021 to 10.7% today. x.com 

Nike's valuation pays investors to wait for a turnaround that will take longer than expected. It trades at just 16x earnings, near its lowest valuation ever, with a roughly 5% dividend yield, and would need a 127% rally to regain its 200-week moving average. Revenue is projected to fall another 4% in FY2027, but the business will grow again; the market prices it as if it were disappearing. Unlike Novo Nordisk, Nike faces no patent cliff. x.com  x.com 

Nike's turnaround is looking much longer than bulls expected, and about 17x forward earnings is not cheap for a business growing low single digits. China sales fell 26% FX-neutral while Adidas' Greater China sales grew 15%, pointing to a Nike problem, not a China problem. Sportswear fell low double digits with Dunk revenue down about 50%, Jordan fell mid-teens, and most PACE savings are expected only in FY29-30; Performance grew high single digits. The must-buy price is $25. x.com  x.com  x.com 

If conditions are this tough for On Holding, the rest of the apparel and footwear space, including Lululemon and Nike, is likely faring worse. x.com 

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike, an apparel company with shrinking sales, trades at a premium to the companies selling the most important products on earth. Per @LeifInvests, Nike's forward P/E of 22.6x is higher than Broadcom's ~20.5x, NVIDIA's ~19x and Oracle's ~17x. x.com 

Lululemon is probably going lower because sales and margins are imploding while inventory grows, and a new unproven CEO is coming in. Q3 guidance calls for revenue down 10-11%, North America down mid-teens and inventory up low single digits; full-year revenue should fall 5-7% with inventory up mid single digits. Even granting $6 of annualized EPS versus a ~$4 run rate, 12x for an off-trend retailer implies about $70, versus $100 after an 18% drop. x.com  x.com 

Nike may turn, but On and Hoka appear to be widening their moats, and cleaner economics with more durable advantages are preferable. Nike's FAST Graphs chart is one of the ugliest in a while, raising the question of how much of its moat remains. Possible catalysts are product innovation, a wholesale recovery, China stabilization and cost savings. On is taking market share, and street observation in New York showed On and Hoka standing out on people's feet. x.com  x.com  x.com